Bitcoin Bear Markets and the 50-Week Moving Average Reclaim

Summary

The report examines how Bitcoin’s 200-week and 50-week moving averages have behaved during bear markets. It defines qualifying bear periods as drawdowns of at least 50% lasting more than 90 days, then compares price closes, lows, and moving-average crossings across seven episodes. The 200-week average generally acted as support, while the 50-week average often capped rallies after price fell below it.

The historical analysis finds that the 200-week average was only deeply and persistently breached in the 2021–22 bear market. In four of five completed bears that lost the 50-week average, the first weekly close back above it after the low preceded a durable recovery; two earlier crossings in 2021–22 failed. The authors suggest a weekly close above the 50-week average could signal that the current bear market has ended. The current episode is provisional, the averages are not infallible indicators, and past behavior does not guarantee future results.

Key ideas

• The report defines bear markets as drawdowns of at least 50% lasting more than 90 days.
• The 200-week moving average historically acted as support, with a notable sustained breach in 2021–22.
• The 50-week moving average often served as resistance after Bitcoin fell below it.
• In four of five completed bear markets that lost the 50-week average, a post-low weekly reclaim held.
• The current bear-market classification and its moving-average signal are provisional.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.