Bitcoin Pi Cycle Rules and the Importance of Exact Thresholds

Summary

The document sets out proposed formulas for Bitcoin’s Pi Cycle top and bottom indicators and asks whether the inequalities are stated correctly. The top condition compares a 111-day simple moving average with twice a 350-day simple moving average. The bottom condition compares a 150-day exponential moving average with 0.745 times a 471-day simple moving average; crossing back above that threshold is described as ending the bottoming zone.

The author cannot find an authoritative source for the precise definitions and raises a broader implementation concern: whether trading rules should use strict or inclusive inequalities. The document does not provide an answer, source, backtest, or evidence that resolves which operators are correct. Its practical lesson is that a rule’s exact boundary convention should be verified and documented before implementation, since equality handling can affect signals. The indicator definitions presented here should therefore be treated as the question’s proposed formulation, not as independently confirmed specifications.

Key ideas

• The proposed Pi Cycle top condition compares a 111-day simple average with twice a 350-day simple average.
• The proposed bottom condition compares a 150-day exponential average with 0.745 times a 471-day simple average.
• The proposed end of the bottoming zone occurs when the exponential average rises above the specified threshold.
• The document does not establish an authoritative source for the exact inequality operators.
• Trading rules should specify how equality at a threshold is handled.

Tags

# Bitcoin Pi Cycle - top and bottom indicator - precise definition


# Bitcoin Pi Cycle - top and bottom indicator - precise definition












From my reading I understand that:

- The Bitcoin Pi Cycle top indicator signals a top when:

111 day Simple Moving average > 350 day Simple Moving Average * 2

- The Bitcoin Pi Cycle bottom indicator signals a bottom when:

150 day Exponential Moving Average <= .745 * 471 day Simple Moving Average

The Bitcoin Pi Cycle bottom indicator then indicates the end of the bottoming zone when:

150 day Exponential Moving Average > .745 * 471 day Simple Moving Average

My query is: Did I get the 3 inequalities right? I could not find a authoritative source on this, some of it is from AI and I am not sure it is precise. Can someone point me to the original or authoritative source? I hope I have not replaced < with <=, > with >= or vice versa.

I think this query applies to many technical trading rules. Do we have to be careful about inequality vs strict inequality in a trading rule?

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.