Bollinger %B Pullbacks Filtered by the Long-Term Trend

Summary

This long-only strategy combines Bollinger Band %B with a 200-day simple moving average filter. It considers an entry when the close is above the long-term average and %B has remained below 0.2 for three consecutive days, treating that condition as a pullback near the lower band. It closes the position when %B rises above 0.8. The described setup uses 20 periods for the bands and a two-standard-deviation width.

The source includes a daily BTC/USDT futures backtest configuration spanning several years, but the document gives no returns, drawdowns, trade counts, or comparison benchmark. It cautions that signals may fail in volatile or sideways markets and that the basic rules have no stop-loss, leaving exposure to sustained declines and market crashes. Proposed enhancements include dynamic stops, additional filters, volume analysis, and staged entries or exits; these are suggestions rather than tested results.

Key ideas

• The strategy only considers long entries when price is above the 200-day SMA.
• It enters after %B stays below 0.2 for three consecutive days.
• It exits when %B closes above 0.8.
• The basic rules have no stop-loss, so sustained declines can create substantial losses.
• The published multi-year backtest setup is not accompanied by performance statistics.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.