BTC Options and Futures Positioning Ahead of PCE and US Election Events

Summary

This derivatives newsletter interprets Bitcoin options and futures positioning in the week before a US PCE release and developments in the 2024 election campaign. It reports a rise in implied volatility relative to realized volatility, a week-over-week increase in implied volatility across the term structure, and stronger 25-delta wings relative to at-the-money volatility. The author reads these options signals as greater demand for exposure to large price moves. Dealer positioning is described as short optionality near the $70,000 strike, while futures and perpetual open interest had risen toward year-to-date highs.

The newsletter also notes that the 90-day futures basis was not especially elevated, suggesting leverage demand had not yet made longs unusually expensive. These observations are presented alongside a bullish event-driven view, including speculation that political news could help BTC reach a new high. The commentary is a dated market snapshot, not a tested forecast: the charts are referenced but not included in the text, and the event outcome and price direction are uncertain. Its interpretation of positioning does not establish that a breakout will occur.

Key ideas

• The newsletter links upcoming macroeconomic and US election events with potential volatility in Bitcoin.
• It describes higher implied volatility relative to realized volatility and a rise in out-of-the-money wing volatility.
• The author reports dealer short optionality near the $70,000 strike and rising futures and perpetual open interest.
• The futures basis is characterized as relatively moderate despite increased open interest.
• These are dated positioning observations and speculative interpretations, not evidence that BTC will break to a new high.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.