BTC Perpetual Reversal Strategy at Prior-Day Levels with RSI Divergence

Summary

This document outlines an intraday mean-reversion approach for BTC/USDT perpetual futures on a five-minute chart. It looks for price to approach the prior day's high or low and requires a recently confirmed RSI divergence pivot, alongside volume above its moving average, before entering. If the prior-day range is narrow, the support and resistance reference expands to a two-day range. The strategy can add once when price moves against the initial position, then uses different profit targets before and after that addition.

Risk rules include a stop based on the worst entry, a breakeven-related stop adjustment after a favorable move, and a daily UTC close with an exception for sufficiently favorable positions. The document reports that a five-year backtest of this exact logic lost 94%, with 30% of months profitable, and warns that strong trends can overwhelm the level-based reversal premise. It also says favorable shorter windows should not be treated as a baseline. The excerpt is incomplete, and its stated backtest result should be read as a warning rather than evidence of future performance.

Key ideas

• Entries require a touch near a prior-day extreme and a recent RSI divergence pivot.
• A volume threshold and an adaptive two-day range are used as additional conditions.
• The strategy permits one averaging addition and changes its target logic after that addition.
• Stops, a breakeven adjustment, and UTC time-based exits define the risk framework.
• The reported five-year backtest lost 94%, and the document warns about strong trending regimes.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.