BTC Put Butterfly for a Move Toward $64,000

Summary

This note proposes a long put butterfly to position for a possible BTC decline toward $64,000. The structure buys one $65,000 put, sells two $64,000 puts, and buys one $63,000 put, all expiring on June 21, 2024. The stated debit is $76 per BTC, the maximum loss if the market rises, and the stated maximum profit is $924 per BTC when BTC expires at the middle strike of $64,000. The payoff therefore depends on price finishing near that strike, rather than on a decline alone.

The rationale combines a reversal in US spot bitcoin ETF flows after a 19-day inflow streak, uncertainty around US employment data and interest rates, and chart resistance near $72,000 with support around $64,000. The article also mentions pending SEC review of spot ether fund filings as part of the backdrop. These factors are presented as reasons for a bearish scenario, not as proof of a forecast. The example is tied to a specific expiry and market context, and the stated payoff figures do not account for fees or changes in execution price.

Key ideas

• A long put butterfly combines a long higher strike put, two short middle strike puts, and a long lower strike put.
• The example uses strikes of $65,000, $64,000, and $63,000, expiring June 21, 2024.
• The stated maximum profit is $924 per BTC at expiry at the $64,000 middle strike.
• The $76 per BTC debit is the stated maximum loss if the market rises.
• The bearish rationale cites ETF outflows, economic uncertainty, resistance near $72,000, and support around $64,000.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.