Calculating Portfolio Yield with Bonds and Treasury Futures
Summary
This discussion considers how to summarize yield for a portfolio containing US government bonds and Treasury futures. One proposed approach is to compute a market-value-weighted average of the bonds’ yields to maturity. The replies distinguish the role of futures: they can change a portfolio’s duration or DV01 without representing bond cash flows, so one view is to exclude them from weighted bond yield while including them in interest-rate risk measures.
Another reply suggests calculating an implied yield for futures and combining it with bond yields using weights, while a further suggestion is to solve for a single rate that prices all portfolio cash flows. The discussion offers competing conventions rather than a definitive method. A weighted average of individual yields may not equal the yield implied by pricing the portfolio’s combined cash flows, and futures treatment depends on the chosen definition and accounting of exposure. Margin considerations are also mentioned but not analyzed.
Key ideas
- A market-value-weighted average of bond yields is one way to report portfolio yield.
- Treasury futures can alter duration or DV01 without contributing bond cash flows.
- One approach excludes futures from weighted bond yield and accounts for them in risk measures.
- An alternative combines futures implied yields with bond yields using corresponding weights.
- A single yield that prices all portfolio cash flows may differ from a weighted average.
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Full text
# How is yield calculated for a portfolio?
# How is yield calculated for a portfolio?
If you have a portfolio of US government bonds and treasury futures, and you want to calculate the yield of the portfolio, how would you do this?
Would you say $\sum_{i=1}^n w_i y_i$ where $w_i$ is the value-weight of each security and $y_i$ its yield? What about the treasury futures for whom $w_i = 0$?
## Answer by nbbo2 (score 3)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/80440
Bond Futures in a Bond Portfolio do not contribute to yield, they are there to modify (increase or decrease) Duration (or DV01 if you prefer). In my opinion they could be left out of the calculation of weighted YTM. They certainly should be taken into account for DV01, however.
## Answer by Sane (score 2)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/80433
Once you have the YTM for each bond, calculate the weighted average yield based on the proportion of each bond’s market value relative to the total market value of all bonds in the portfolio.
$PortfolioYield = \sum w_i YTM_{i}$,
where $w_i =\frac{MarketValueBond_{i}}{TotalMarketValue}$.
When dealing with treasury futures, you should calculate implied yield of the contract using price of treasure contract. As you have market value of future contracts and their corresponding implied yields you can compute weighted average implied yield for future contracts, as described above for bonds. Next, you can just combine weighted implied yield with weighted YTM, with corresponding weights.
## Answer by Rylan (score 1)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/80448
I buy the argument from @nbbo2 that futures change DV01 but not yield (although you might need to think a bit about the margin; that's something I know nothing about but it always seems to be something you have to consider.)
As a thought, when we calculate YTM of a coupon bond, we basically decompose it into zero-coupon bonds (ZCBs) representing the coupons and the face value, and numerically find the single rate that would make the sum of all the ZCBs equal the market price. We could probably do the same for the whole portfolio (find the single rate for all payments across all holdings that makes the sum of ZCBs match the portfolio's market value).
I can't imagine that procedure would give a value hugely different from the weighted averages given above, however, so if I already had all the YTMs for each bond, I'd use the weighted average with the caveat that it might not be exactly the same.Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.