Candlestick Return Distribution Histogram in 0.25% Buckets

Summary

This indicator estimates the empirical distribution of close-to-close candle returns over a chosen start date or the full available chart history. It groups returns into 0.25 percentage-point intervals spanning negative and positive moves around zero, with separate outer buckets for returns beyond five percent in either direction. Bars show the count in each group, labels give rounded shares of the sample, and an arrow marks the bucket containing the latest still-forming candle’s return.

The author intended it mainly for daily charts, where the bucket widths may be more informative. On faster timeframes, typical candle changes may fall below the smallest interval, limiting the display’s usefulness. The document describes a visualization, not a predictive trading rule, and supplies no asset-specific results or validation. Its frequencies are historical sample statistics; they do not by themselves imply that future returns will follow the same distribution.

Key ideas

• The indicator calculates close-to-close percentage returns for candles from a selected start date or the full chart history.
• It displays return frequencies in 0.25 percentage-point buckets, with overflow groups beyond five percent in either direction.
• Bar labels report rounded sample percentages, and an arrow identifies the latest forming candle’s return group.
• The author considers daily charts more suitable because faster timeframes may produce returns too small for the chosen buckets.
• The displayed historical distribution is descriptive and is not evidence of predictive performance.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.