Combining Intraday MACD Contraction, Amplitude, and Dividend Payout

Summary

This post proposes screening stocks using three conditions: amplitude above 1%, a shrinking negative MACD histogram on a 15-minute chart, and a 2019 dividend payout ratio above 25%. The idea combines price movement and a possible shift in short-term momentum with a historical shareholder distribution measure. It provides example formulas and Python-style steps that calculate a MACD histogram, compare it with its prior value, and join dividend data to a stock universe.

The post notes that companies with strong earnings but no dividend would be excluded, while a high-amplitude filter could admit riskier small-cap stocks. It recommends considering industry, macroeconomic, and other fundamental and technical information. No backtest or evidence of improved returns is reported. The examples also contain implementation ambiguities: the Python amplitude filter uses turnover ratio, and the data sample for intraday MACD does not clearly apply the calculation across the full stock universe. The historical payout condition may not reflect current company conditions.

Key ideas

• The proposed screen requires amplitude above 1%, a contracting negative 15-minute MACD histogram, and a 2019 payout ratio above 25%.
• A shrinking negative histogram is intended to flag a possible change in short-term momentum.
• A historical dividend filter excludes firms that do not distribute earnings, regardless of other strengths.
• The post warns that high amplitude may select riskier small-cap stocks.
• The examples lack performance evidence and contain ambiguities between the stated conditions and implementation.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.