Combining MACD, Position Inflows, and Ownership Concentration for Stock Screening

Summary

This post proposes a Chinese stock-screening rule that combines three signals: daily position-increase share above 5%, a measure labeled 70-day concentration below 20%, and shrinking MACD histogram bars on a 15-minute chart. It interprets the first as possible buying interest, the second as limited disagreement among holders, and the third as a possible short-term trend shift. The final version also suggests requiring price near the upper Bollinger Band and RSI above 50.

The post describes these signals as potential indications of upside, while acknowledging that inflows may precede distribution, low concentration may reflect control of a stock, and a shorter MACD histogram can also occur during a decline. It offers no backtest, performance figures, precise definitions for its concentration and position-increase measures, or evidence that the proposed filters predict returns. Its explanations are hypotheses for a screening rule, not demonstrated results.

Key ideas

• The proposed screen combines position-increase share, a concentration measure, and a 15-minute MACD histogram pattern.
• The final rule adds an upper Bollinger Band condition and RSI above 50.
• The post recognizes that each signal can be misleading and does not provide empirical validation.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.