Comparing Five Indicators to Measure Trend Duration Across Markets
Summary
The article tests how often markets qualify as trending versus flat by comparing five classification methods: ADX above a threshold, a Bollinger based trend indicator, Percentage of Trend, an RSI filter, and a ZigZag trend detector. It describes an MQL5 tool that counts qualifying bars over a chosen sample and reports percentages across timeframes, instruments, and methods. The sample uses 2,000 bars and includes currency pairs, a gold future, and a stock. The intended comparison examines whether the trend share varies with market and timeframe, and whether the methods agree.
The article presents the widely cited expectation that trends occupy a minority of market time, then reports that the results depend on the chosen indicator, instrument, and timeframe. It suggests that trend phases may be becoming less clear and shorter, but offers no evidence that establishes this as a general market change. The output is sensitive to indicator definitions, thresholds, data history, and sample selection; the percentages describe classifications rather than profitable trading opportunities.
Key ideas
- The study compares five indicators that classify bars as trending or flat.
- It estimates trend frequency as the share of sampled bars that meet each method's condition.
- Results can be compared across instruments and timeframes using a summary table.
- Indicator choice, thresholds, and available price history affect the estimated trend share.
- A measured trend percentage does not by itself show that a trend strategy is profitable.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.