Crypto Derivatives Signals During the March 2025 Selloff

Summary

This weekly market note interprets derivatives pricing for Bitcoin and Ether during a sharp spot-market correction. It points to several bearish signals: short-dated futures trading below spot, persistently negative perpetual swap funding, and options skew shifting toward puts. It also describes an inversion in the volatility term structure, with short-tenor implied volatility rising again as US trading opened on Monday.

The report’s evidence is a qualitative reading of futures, funding, and options indicators, including a stated 21-point premium for downside risk in short-tenor Ether options. It says Bitcoin’s put skew was less pronounced than Ether’s and that the shift in volatility structure was briefly interrupted before returning. This is a dated snapshot rather than a forecasting model or tested strategy. The supplied text includes chart headings and interpretations but not the underlying chart data, so readers cannot independently assess the measurements or determine how the signals performed afterward.

Key ideas

• Below-spot short-tenor futures and negative perpetual funding were described as bearish signals.
• Options skew shifted toward puts for both Bitcoin and Ether during the selloff.
• The report says Ether’s short-tenor downside skew was stronger than Bitcoin’s.
• Short-tenor implied volatility rose as the volatility term structure inverted again.
• The note is a dated market snapshot without supplied chart data or strategy testing.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.