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Crypto Trend Following with Multi-Timeframe Filters and Timed Exits

Article Strategy library · Author: freqtrade

Summary

This one-hour crypto strategy seeks long entries during established uptrends, using EMA regimes, pullbacks, and several other technical signals. Its indicator set includes EMA, RSI, ADX, MACD, Bollinger Bands, volume, OBV, and ATR. It also draws on four-hour and daily trend data and Bitcoin indicators as market context. The visible configuration specifies one-times leverage, trailing stops, protective cooldown and drawdown rules, and time-based exits that cut trades failing to recover. Entry confirmation applies a confidence score and raises its threshold in bearish regimes.

The document lists optimized parameters and ROI targets, but supplies no trade statistics or comparative backtest evidence. The strategy source is truncated, so its full entry logic and the calculation of confidence cannot be assessed. Although the description mentions ATR-aware stoplosses, the shown configuration disables custom stoploss, limiting what can be concluded about their use. Static neutral defaults for sentiment and on-chain inputs also mean those data do not provide dynamic signals here.

Key ideas

  • The strategy combines pullback and reversal signals with EMA-based trend context for long entries.
  • It uses higher-timeframe asset trends and Bitcoin indicators as additional market filters.
  • A confidence check can reject signals, with a higher minimum in bearish regimes.
  • One-times leverage, trailing stops, trade protections, and timed exits are specified as risk controls.
  • The source is incomplete and the document gives no performance results, so effectiveness cannot be established.

Tags

Full text
# TrendRiderStrategy


# TrendRiderStrategy









TrendRider Strategy

Ride established trends with ATR-aware stoploss.
Key insight: crypto swings 2-4% per hour, stoploss must accommodate this volatility.

- Leverage 1x (spot-safe)
- TA-Lib indicators with confidence scoring
- Multiple entry signals: pullback, EMA bounce, RSI bounce, crossover, BB bounce, MACD reversal

## Source (GPL-3.0)

```python
"""
TrendRider Strategy

Ride established trends with ATR-aware stoploss.
Key insight: crypto swings 2-4% per hour, stoploss must accommodate this volatility.

- Leverage 1x (spot-safe)
- TA-Lib indicators with confidence scoring
- Multiple entry signals: pullback, EMA bounce, RSI bounce, crossover, BB bounce, MACD reversal
"""

import talib.abstract as ta
from datetime import datetime
from freqtrade.strategy import IStrategy, IntParameter, DecimalParameter, merge_informative_pair
from pandas import DataFrame
from functools import reduce
import logging

logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)


class TrendRiderStrategy(IStrategy):
    INTERFACE_VERSION = 3

    # --- ROI: Hyperopt-optimized (2026-03-23, 5 pairs) ---
    minimal_roi = {
        "0": 0.229,     # 22.9% immediate
        "124": 0.136,   # 13.6% after ~2h
        "290": 0.044,   # 4.4% after ~5h
        "764": 0,       # breakeven after ~12.7h
    }

    # --- Stoploss ---
    stoploss = -0.06           # 6% default (ATR-based custom stoploss overrides)
    use_custom_stoploss = False

    # --- Trailing Stop ---
    trailing_stop = True
    trailing_stop_positive = 0.03        # 3% trail
    trailing_stop_positive_offset = 0.05 # Activate after +5%
    trailing_only_offset_is_reached = True

    # --- General ---
    timeframe = "1h"
    startup_candle_count = 210
    process_only_new_candles = True
    can_short = False
    position_adjustment_enable = False

    # --- Protections (moved from config.json for Freqtrade 2026.2+) ---
    protections = [
        {
            "method": "CooldownPeriod",
            "stop_duration": 20
        },
        {
            "method": "StoplossGuard",
            "lookback_period": 720,
            "trade_limit": 3,
            "stop_duration": 60,
            "only_per_pair": False
        },
        {
            "method": "MaxDrawdown",
            "lookback_period": 1440,
            "max_allowed_drawdown": 0.10,
            "stop_duration": 300,
            "trade_limit": 5
        }
    ]

    # --- HyperOpt Results (applied from optimization session 2026-03-23) ---
    buy_params = {
        "ema_fast": 9,
        "ema_slow": 16,
        "rsi_period": 16,
        "rsi_pullback_low": 30,
        "rsi_pullback_high": 65,
        "rsi_bounce": 35,
        "adx_threshold": 18,
        "volume_factor": 0.7,
    }

    sell_params = {
        "rsi_exit": 78,
    }

    # --- HyperOpt Parameters ---
    ema_fast = IntParameter(5, 15, default=9, space="buy")
    ema_slow = IntParameter(15, 30, default=21, space="buy")
    rsi_period = IntParameter(10, 20, default=14, space="buy")
    rsi_pullback_low = IntParameter(30, 48, default=40, space="buy")
    rsi_pullback_high = IntParameter(52, 65, default=58, space="buy")
    rsi_bounce = IntParameter(25, 35, default=30, space="buy")
    rsi_exit = IntParameter(72, 85, default=78, space="sell")
    adx_threshold = IntParameter(20, 35, default=25, space="buy")
    volume_factor = DecimalParameter(1.0, 2.5, default=1.3, space="buy")

    # --- Leverage: 1x for Strat Ninja (spot-safe) ---
    leverage_value = 1

    def leverage(self, pair: str, current_time, current_rate: float,
                 proposed_leverage: float, max_leverage: float, entry_tag: str,
                 side: str, **kwargs) -> float:
        return 1

    def informative_pairs(self):
        pairs = self.dp.current_whitelist() if self.dp else []
        informative = []
        for pair in pairs:
            informative.append((pair, "4h"))
            informative.append((pair, "1d"))
        # BTC as market sentiment
        informative.append(("BTC/USDT:USDT", "1h"))
        informative.append(("BTC/USDT:USDT", "4h"))
        return informative

    def populate_indicators(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame:
        # EMAs (all periods for hyperopt ranges)
        for period in range(5, 31):
            dataframe[f"ema_{period}"] = ta.EMA(dataframe, timeperiod=period)
        dataframe["ema_50"] = ta.EMA(dataframe, timeperiod=50)
        dataframe["ema_200"] = ta.EMA(dataframe, timeperiod=200)

        # RSI (all periods for hyperopt range 10-20)
        for period in range(10, 21):
            dataframe[f"rsi_{period}"] = ta.RSI(dataframe, timeperiod=period)

        # ADX
        dataframe["adx"] = ta.ADX(dataframe, timeperiod=14)
        dataframe["plus_di"] = ta.PLUS_DI(dataframe, timeperiod=14)
        dataframe["minus_di"] = ta.MINUS_DI(dataframe, timeperiod=14)

        # MACD
        macd = ta.MACD(dataframe, fastperiod=12, slowperiod=26, signalperiod=9)
        dataframe["macd"] = macd["macd"]
        dataframe["macdsignal"] = macd["macdsignal"]
        dataframe["macdhist"] = macd["macdhist"]
        dataframe["macdhist_prev"] = macd["macdhist"].shift(1)

        # Bollinger Bands
        bb = ta.BBANDS(dataframe, timeperiod=20, nbdevup=2.0, nbdevdn=2.0)
        dataframe["bb_upper"] = bb["upperband"]
        dataframe["bb_middle"] = bb["middleband"]
        dataframe["bb_lower"] = bb["lowerband"]
        # BB width for volatility regime
        dataframe["bb_width"] = (dataframe["bb_upper"] - dataframe["bb_lower"]) / (dataframe["bb_middle"] + 1e-10)
        dataframe["bb_width_sma"] = ta.SMA(dataframe["bb_width"], timeperiod=50)

        # Volume (fix #4: epsilon guard against division by zero)
        dataframe["volume_ema"] = ta.EMA(dataframe["volume"], timeperiod=20)
        dataframe["volume_ratio"] = dataframe["volume"] / (dataframe["volume_ema"] + 1e-10)

        # OBV
        dataframe["obv"] = ta.OBV(dataframe)
        dataframe["obv_ema"] = ta.EMA(dataframe["obv"], timeperiod=20)

        # ATR for dynamic stoploss
        dataframe["atr"] = ta.ATR(dataframe, timeperiod=14)

        # Regime
        dataframe["is_bull"] = (
            (dataframe["close"] > dataframe["ema_200"]) &
            (dataframe["ema_50"] > dataframe["ema_200"])
        ).astype(int)

        dataframe["is_bear"] = (
            (dataframe["close"] < dataframe["ema_200"]) &
            (dataframe["ema_50"] < dataframe["ema_200"])
        ).astype(int)

        # --- LONG pullback detection ---
        ema_slow_key = f"ema_{self.ema_slow.value}"
        if ema_slow_key in dataframe.columns:
            dataframe["pullback_to_ema"] = (
                (dataframe["low"] <= dataframe[ema_slow_key] * 1.02) &
                (dataframe["close"] > dataframe[ema_slow_key]) &
                (dataframe["close"] > dataframe["open"])  # Bullish candle
            ).astype(int)
        else:
            dataframe["pullback_to_ema"] = 0

        # EMA50 support bounce (LONG)
        dataframe["ema50_bounce"] = (
            (dataframe["low"] <= dataframe["ema_50"] * 1.01) &
            (dataframe["close"] > dataframe["ema_50"]) &
            (dataframe["close"] > dataframe["open"])
        ).astype(int)

        # --- Multi-Timeframe data ---
        if self.dp:
            # 4h data for current pair
            df_4h = self.dp.get_pair_dataframe(pair=metadata['pair'], timeframe='4h')
            if len(df_4h) > 0:
                df_4h['ema_50'] = ta.EMA(df_4h, timeperiod=50)
                df_4h['ema_200'] = ta.EMA(df_4h, timeperiod=200)
                df_4h['rsi_14'] = ta.RSI(df_4h, timeperiod=14)
                df_4h['adx'] = ta.ADX(df_4h, timeperiod=14)
                df_4h['is_bull'] = (
                    (df_4h['close'] > df_4h['ema_200']) &
                    (df_4h['ema_50'] > df_4h['ema_200'])
                ).astype(int)
                dataframe = merge_informative_pair(
                    dataframe,
                    df_4h[['date', 'ema_50', 'ema_200', 'rsi_14', 'adx', 'is_bull']],
                    self.timeframe, '4h', ffill=True
                )
            else:
                dataframe['ema_50_4h'] = 0
                dataframe['ema_200_4h'] = 0
                dataframe['rsi_14_4h'] = 50
                dataframe['adx_4h'] = 0
                dataframe['is_bull_4h'] = 0

            # Daily data for macro trend
            df_1d = self.dp.get_pair_dataframe(pair=metadata['pair'], timeframe='1d')
            if len(df_1d) > 0:
                df_1d['ema_200'] = ta.EMA(df_1d, timeperiod=200)
                dataframe = merge_informative_pair(
                    dataframe,
                    df_1d[['date', 'ema_200']],
                    self.timeframe, '1d', ffill=True
                )
            else:
                dataframe['ema_200_1d'] = 0

            # BTC market sentiment
            df_btc = self.dp.get_pair_dataframe(pair='BTC/USDT:USDT', timeframe='1h')
            if len(df_btc) > 0:
                df_btc['btc_ema_200'] = ta.EMA(df_btc, timeperiod=200)
                df_btc['btc_ema_50'] = ta.EMA(df_btc, timeperiod=50)
                df_btc['btc_rsi'] = ta.RSI(df_btc, timeperiod=14)
                df_btc['btc_is_bull'] = (
                    (df_btc['close'] > df_btc['btc_ema_200']) &
                    (df_btc['btc_ema_50'] > df_btc['btc_ema_200'])
                ).astype(int)
                dataframe = merge_informative_pair(
                    dataframe,
                    df_btc[['date', 'btc_ema_200', 'btc_ema_50', 'btc_rsi', 'btc_is_bull']],
                    self.timeframe, '1h', ffill=True
                )
            else:
                dataframe['btc_is_bull_1h'] = 1
                dataframe['btc_rsi_1h'] = 50
        else:
            # Safety fallback when dp is not available
            dataframe['is_bull_4h'] = dataframe['is_bull']
            dataframe['rsi_14_4h'] = dataframe['rsi_14'] if 'rsi_14' in dataframe.columns else 50
            dataframe['adx_4h'] = dataframe['adx']
            dataframe['btc_is_bull_1h'] = 1
            dataframe['btc_rsi_1h'] = 50
            dataframe['ema_200_1d'] = 0

        # Ensure columns exist (safety for backtesting edge cases)
        for col, default in [
            ('is_bull_4h', 1), ('rsi_14_4h', 50), ('adx_4h', 20),
            ('btc_is_bull_1h', 1), ('btc_rsi_1h', 50),
            ('ema_200_1d', 0),
        ]:
            if col not in dataframe.columns:
                dataframe[col] = default

        # --- Fear & Greed Index: static neutral (no API) ---
        dataframe['fng_value'] = 50

        # --- On-chain: static defaults (no API) ---
        dataframe['funding_rate'] = 0.0
        dataframe['funding_extreme'] = 0
        dataframe['oi_change'] = 0.0

        return dataframe

    def populate_entry_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame:
        rsi = f"rsi_{self.rsi_period.value}"

        # ========== LONG ENTRIES ==========

        # === LONG 1: Trend Pullback to EMA ===
        conditions_pullback = [
            dataframe["is_bull"] == 1,
            dataframe["pullback_to_ema"] == 1,
            dataframe[rsi] > self.rsi_pullback_low.value,
            dataframe[rsi] < self.rsi_pullback_high.value,
            dataframe["adx"] > self.adx_threshold.value,
            dataframe["volume_ratio"] > self.volume_factor.value,
            dataframe["plus_di"] > dataframe["minus_di"],
            dataframe["obv"] > dataframe["obv_ema"],
            dataframe["volume"] > 0,
            dataframe["btc_rsi_1h"] > 35,
            dataframe["fng_value"] >= 25,      # Not extreme fear
            dataframe["fng_value"] <= 85,      # Not extreme greed
            dataframe[rsi] < 70,               # Not overbought
        ]
        # Daily EMA200 filter — helps filter bad entries
        if 'ema_200_1d' in dataframe.columns:
            conditions_pullback.append(dataframe["close"] > dataframe["ema_200_1d"])

        dataframe.loc[
            reduce(lambda x, y: x & y, conditions_pullback),
            ["enter_long", "enter_tag"]
        ] = (1, "trend_pullback")

        # === LONG 2: EMA50 Support Bounce ===
        conditions_ema50 = [
            dataframe["is_bull"] == 1,
            dataframe["ema50_bounce"] == 1,
            dataframe[rsi] > 30,
            dataframe[rsi] < 50,
            dataframe["adx"] > 20,
            dataframe["volume_ratio"] > 1.0,
            dataframe["macdhist"] > dataframe["macdhist"].shift(1),
            dataframe["volume"] > 0,
            dataframe["btc_rsi_1h"] > 35,
            dataframe["fng_value"] >= 25,
            dataframe["fng_value"] <= 85,
            dataframe[rsi] < 70,
        ]
        dataframe.loc[
            reduce(lambda x, y: x & y, conditions_ema50),
            ["enter_long", "enter_tag"]
        ] = (1, "ema50_bounce")

        # === LONG 3: RSI Oversold Bounce ===
        conditions_rsi = [
            dataframe["close"] > dataframe["ema_200"],
            dataframe[rsi].shift(1) < self.rsi_bounce.value,
            dataframe[rsi] > self.rsi_bounce.value,
            dataframe["close"] > dataframe["bb_lower"],
            dataframe["close"] > dataframe["open"],
            dataframe["volume_ratio"] > 0.8,
            dataframe["obv"] > dataframe["obv_ema"],
            dataframe["volume"] > 0,
            dataframe["btc_rsi_1h"] > 35,
            dataframe["fng_value"] >= 25,
            dataframe["fng_value"] <= 85,
        ]
        dataframe.loc[
            reduce(lambda x, y: x & y, conditions_rsi),
            ["enter_long", "enter_tag"]
        ] = (1, "rsi_bounce")

        # === LONG 4: EMA Crossover (golden cross on fast EMAs) ===
        ema_fast_key = f"ema_{self.ema_fast.value}"
        ema_slow_key = f"ema_{self.ema_slow.value}"
        conditions_ema_cross = [
            (dataframe[ema_fast_key] > dataframe[ema_slow_key]) &
            (dataframe[ema_fast_key].shift(1) <= dataframe[ema_slow_key].shift(1)),  # crossed above
            dataframe[rsi] > 40,
            dataframe[rsi] < 75,
            dataframe["close"] > dataframe["ema_200"],
            dataframe["volume_ratio"] > 0.5,
            dataframe["volume"] > 0,
            dataframe["btc_rsi_1h"] > 35,
            dataframe["fng_value"] >= 25,
            dataframe["fng_value"] <= 85,
        ]
        dataframe.loc[
            reduce(lambda x, y: x & y, conditions_ema_cross),
            ["enter_long", "enter_tag"]
        ] = (1, "ema_crossover")

        # === LONG 5: Bollinger Band Bounce ===
        conditions_bb = [
            dataframe["close"] <= dataframe["bb_lower"] * 1.005,           # close within 0.5% of BB lower
            dataframe["close"] > dataframe["open"],                         # bullish candle (bounce)
            dataframe[rsi] < 45,
            dataframe["volume_ratio"] > 0.7,                                # filter weak bounces
            dataframe["adx"] > 18,                                          # trend strength filter
            dataframe["volume"] > 0,
            dataframe["btc_rsi_1h"] > 35,
            dataframe["fng_value"] >= 25,
            dataframe["fng_value"] <= 85,
        ]
        dataframe.loc[
            reduce(lambda x, y: x & y, conditions_bb),
            ["enter_long", "enter_tag"]
        ] = (1, "bb_bounce")

        # === LONG 6: MACD Histogram Reversal (tightened: RSI 40-60, EMA200 filter, volume 0.8x) ===
        conditions_macd = [
            (dataframe["macdhist"] > 0) &
            (dataframe["macdhist"].shift(1) <= 0),  # histogram crossed above zero
            dataframe["close"] > dataframe["ema_50"],
            dataframe["close"] > dataframe["ema_200"],  # confirm uptrend
            dataframe[rsi] > 40,
            dataframe[rsi] < 60,
            dataframe["adx"] > 15,
            dataframe["volume_ratio"] > 0.8,            # volume confirmation
            dataframe["volume"] > 0,
            dataframe["btc_rsi_1h"] > 35,
            dataframe["fng_value"] >= 25,
            dataframe["fng_value"] <= 85,
        ]
        dataframe.loc[
            reduce(lambda x, y: x & y, conditions_macd),
            ["enter_long", "enter_tag"]
        ] = (1, "macd_reversal")

        return dataframe

    def populate_exit_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame:
        rsi = f"rsi_{self.rsi_period.value}"
        ema_fast = f"ema_{self.ema_fast.value}"
        ema_slow = f"ema_{self.ema_slow.value}"

        # ========== LONG EXITS ==========

        # EXIT 1: RSI very overbought
        dataframe.loc[
            (dataframe[rsi] > self.rsi_exit.value) &
            (dataframe["volume"] > 0),
            ["exit_long", "exit_tag"]
        ] = (1, "rsi_overbought")

        # EXIT 2: Bearish EMA cross with MACD confirmation
        dataframe.loc[
            (dataframe[ema_fast] < dataframe[ema_slow]) &
            (dataframe[ema_fast].shift(1) >= dataframe[ema_slow].shift(1)) &
            (dataframe["macdhist"] < 0) &
            (dataframe[rsi] > 50) &
            (dataframe["volume"] > 0),
            ["exit_long", "exit_tag"]
        ] = (1, "ema_bearish_cross")

        # EXIT 3: Price drops below EMA200 by 1%+ (trend broken, softened to avoid premature exits)
        dataframe.loc[
            (dataframe["close"] < dataframe["ema_200"] * 0.99) &
            (dataframe["close"].shift(1) >= dataframe["ema_200"].shift(1)) &
            (dataframe["volume"] > 0),
            ["exit_long", "exit_tag"]
        ] = (1, "trend_broken")

        # EXIT 4: Trend early warning — RSI overbought reversal near EMA200
        # Catches trend exhaustion before price breaks support, saving avg -3% vs trend_broken
        dataframe.loc[
            (dataframe["close"] < dataframe["ema_200"] * 0.995) &  # within 0.5% of breaking
            (dataframe[rsi] > 72) &                                  # exhausted
            (dataframe["macdhist"] < dataframe["macdhist"].shift(1)) & # momentum dropping
            (dataframe["volume"] > 0),
            ["exit_long", "exit_tag"]
        ] = (1, "trend_early_warning")

        return dataframe


    # --- Improved Confidence Scoring (inline from trendrider_confidence) ---
    def _calc_confidence(self, last: dict) -> tuple:
        """Calculate signal confidence based on weighted indicator alignment.

        Max score ~17.5. Returns (level_str, bar_str, details_list, numeric_level).
        """
        score = 0.0
        details = []
        rsi_key = f"rsi_{self.rsi_period.value}"
        rsi_val = last.get(rsi_key, 50)

        # RSI in healthy zone (not overbought): +1.5
        if 35 < rsi_val < 60:
            score += 1.5
            details.append("RSI healthy")

        # Strong trend (ADX): +2.5 strong, +1.5 moderate
        adx_val = last.get('adx', 0)
        if adx_val > 30:
            score += 2.5
            details.append("Strong trend")
        elif adx_val > self.adx_threshold.value:
            score += 1.5
            details.append("Moderate trend")

        # Volume confirmation: +2.5 high, +1.5 normal
        vol_ratio = last.get('volume_ratio', 0)
        if vol_ratio > 1.5:
            score += 2.5
            details.append("High volume")
        elif vol_ratio > 1.0:
            score += 1.5
            details.append("Normal volume")

        # MACD positive histogram: +1.5, bonus +0.5 if rising
        macd_hist = last.get('macdhist', 0)
        macd_hist_prev = last.get('macdhist_prev', 0)
        if macd_hist > 0:
            score += 1.5
            if macd_hist > macd_hist_prev:
                score += 0.5
                details.append("MACD positive+rising")
            else:
                details.append("MACD positive")

        # OBV rising AND above EMA: +1.5
        if last.get('obv', 0) > last.get('obv_ema', 0):
            score += 1.5
            details.append("OBV rising")

        # BTC healthy (RSI 40-70): +1.5
        btc_rsi = last.get('btc_rsi_1h', 50)
        if 40 < btc_rsi < 70:
            score += 1.5
            details.append("BTC healthy")

        # 4h trend alignment AND ADX_4h > 20: +1.5
        if last.get('is_bull_4h', 0) == 1 and last.get('adx_4h', 0) > 20:
            score += 1.5
            details.append("4H trend aligned")

        # Bollinger Band position (close near lower = good for long): +1
        close = last.get('close', 0)
        bb_lower = last.get('bb_lower', 0)
        bb_upper = last.get('bb_upper', 0)
        bb_range = bb_upper - bb_lower if bb_upper > bb_lower else 1
        if bb_lower > 0 and close > 0:
            bb_position = (close - bb_lower) / bb_range
            if bb_position < 0.35:
                score += 1.0
                details.append("Near BB lower")

        # Plus_DI > Minus_DI spread > 10: +1
        plus_di = last.get('plus_di', 0)
        minus_di = last.get('minus_di', 0)
        if plus_di - minus_di > 10:
            score += 1.0
            details.append("Strong DI spread")

        # FNG bonus: neutral/healthy (40-60): +1
        fng_val = last.get('fng_value', 50)
        if 40 <= fng_val <= 60:
            score += 1.0
            details.append("FNG neutral")

        # On-chain: healthy funding rate: +1
        funding = last.get('funding_rate', 0)
        if abs(funding) < 0.0001:  # Normal funding
            score += 1
            details.append("Healthy funding")

        # Smooth mapping to 1-10 (max score ~17.5)
        numeric = max(1, min(10, round(score * 10 / 17.5)))

        # Level label
        if numeric >= 8:
            level = "STRONG"
        elif numeric >= 6:
            level = "GOOD"
        elif numeric >= 4:
            level = "MEDIUM"
        else:
            level = "WEAK"

        # Dynamic bar
        bar = "|" * numeric + "-" * (10 - numeric) + f" {numeric}/10"

        return level, bar, details, numeric

    def _market_context(self, last: dict) -> str:
        """Generate market context string."""
        btc_rsi = last.get('btc_rsi_1h', 50)
        btc_bull = last.get('btc_is_bull_1h', 0)
        bull_4h = last.get('is_bull_4h', 0)

        if btc_bull and btc_rsi > 55:
            btc_status = "Bullish"
        elif btc_rsi > 40:
            btc_status = "Neutral"
        else:
            btc_status = "Bearish"

        tf_4h = "Uptrend" if bull_4h else "Downtrend"

        parts = [f"BTC: {btc_status} (RSI {btc_rsi:.0f})", f"4H: {tf_4h}"]

        return " | ".join(parts)

    def _get_market_regime(self, last: dict) -> str:
        """Detect market regime from ADX + EMA200 + BB width."""
        adx_val = last.get('adx', 0)
        ema_200 = last.get('ema_200', 0)
        close = last.get('close', 0)
        is_bull = last.get('is_bull', 0)
        bb_width = last.get('bb_width', 0)
        bb_width_sma = last.get('bb_width_sma', 0)

        high_vol = bb_width > bb_width_sma * 1.5 if bb_width_sma > 0 else False

        if adx_val < 20:
            return "Ranging (High Vol)" if high_vol else "Ranging"
        elif is_bull and close > ema_200:
            return "Trending Bull"
        else:
            return "Trending Bear (High Vol)" if high_vol else "Trending Bear"

    def custom_exit(self, pair: str, trade, current_time: datetime,
                    current_rate: float, current_profit: float, **kwargs):
        """Cascading early exit — stop bleeding before 24h timeout.

        Cascade catches losers earlier than the 24h hard timeout:
        - 2h: cut if -1.5% (already broken thesis)
        - 4h: cut if red (no recovery momentum)
        - 8h: cut if not at +0.5% (dead trade)
        - 16h: cut if not at +1% (final mercy)
        """
        duration_hours = (current_time - trade.open_date_utc).total_seconds() / 3600
        if duration_hours >= 2 and current_profit < -0.015:
            return "early_loss_cut_2h"
        if duration_hours >= 4 and current_profit < 0:
            return "early_loss_cut_4h"
        if duration_hours >= 8 and current_profit < 0.005:
            return "early_loss_cut_8h"
        if duration_hours >= 16 and current_profit < 0.01:
            return "early_loss_cut_16h"
        if duration_hours >= 24:
            return "time_exit_24h"
        return None

    def confirm_trade_entry(self, pair: str, order_type: str, amount: float, rate: float,
                           time_in_force: str, current_time: datetime, entry_tag: str | None,
                           side: str, **kwargs) -> bool:
        # Get current indicators for confidence filter
        dataframe, _ = self.dp.get_analyzed_dataframe(pair, self.timeframe)
        if len(dataframe) > 0:
            last = dataframe.iloc[-1]
        else:
            last = {}

        # Confidence & regime filter — reject weak signals
        _, _, _, conf_numeric = self._calc_confidence(last)
        regime = self._get_market_regime(last)
        min_conf = 6 if "Bear" in regime else 5
        if conf_numeric < min_conf:
            logger.info(f"Rejecting signal for {pair}: confidence {conf_numeric}/10 < {min_conf} (regime: {regime})")
            return False

        return True

```

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: GPL-3.0

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.