Delivery Timing and Switch Options in Bond Futures
Summary
This explanation distinguishes the timing option from the switch option in bond futures and clarifies that the end-of-month option is another form of switch option. The timing option concerns when to deliver; the switch option concerns which eligible bond to deliver, especially when the cheapest-to-deliver bond could change before delivery.
Delivery timing is generally guided by the cheapest-to-deliver bond’s carry: negative carry tends to favor early delivery, while positive carry tends to favor late delivery. A valuable switch option can change that choice because delivering ends the opportunity to switch bonds. The end-of-month option arises after futures trading stops but before delivery is complete, when cash bond prices may still move enough to change the cheapest-to-deliver bond. The answer characterizes both timing and end-of-month options as usually small, while noting the latter has historically reached a few ticks in classic bond contracts. It does not explain the wildcard option, and the answer flags an earlier characterization of it as incorrect.
Key ideas
- The timing option concerns the choice of delivery date, while the switch option concerns the bond delivered.
- Negative carry generally favors early delivery, whereas positive carry generally favors late delivery.
- A valuable switch option may make delayed delivery attractive even when carry is negative.
- The end-of-month option can arise when cash bond prices move after futures trading has ended and alter the cheapest-to-deliver bond.
- The discussion does not provide a corrected explanation of the wildcard option.
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Full text
# Difference between timing option, end of month option and wild card option of bond futures # Difference between timing option, end of month option and wild card option of bond futures I cannot understand the difference between timing option, end of month option and wild card option of bond futures. i think they are all timing options which is optimal delivery. Only difference is timing option lives between the first delivery and last delivery; end of month option lives between last settlement date and last delivery; wild card lives between future market close and bond market close. So i cannot find the essential difference btween them. ## Answer by Helin (score 3, accepted) https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/44661 The timing option is about when you make delivery and it's more or less worthless. The optimal delivery date, for the most part, boils down to whether or not carry for the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) is positive. If carry is negative, early delivery is usually optimal. If carry is positive, late delivery is recommended. The edge case is when the switch option (more on this below) is very valuable but carry is negative. Then there's a tug-of-war. If switch option is not valuable enough to offset the negative carry, you'd still deliver early. But if the switch option is very valuable, you might want to deliver later in spite of the negative carry (as soon as you make delivery, you forfeit the switch option completely, assuming it has any value.) The switch option is about which bond you deliver. - Generally speaking / in most models, the switch option (also known as quality option) is about the possibility that the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) can change between now and the delivery date, where the delivery date is pre-specified to be either the first delivery date or last delivery date, depending on the carry profile (this is not as bad as it sounds, because the timing option, as mentioned above, is pretty much worthless). - More complex models might account for the end-of-month option, which is really another switch option (as opposed to being a timing option). Remember that futures price stops changing after the last trade date, but cash bond prices still do. So between the last trade date and the last delivery date, it's possible that the cash market moves by enough that the CTD can change again, after futures have stopped trading. The EOM option is usually worthless too, but for the classic bond contract, it has historically been worth as much 3-5 ticks. Edited to remove incorrect characterization of the wildcard option. Please refer to @dm63's excellent discussion in the comments below.
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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.