Deriving FX Forward Value from the Forward Rate and Discounting
Summary
The document explains how to derive the value at an intermediate time of an FX forward whose underlying spot rate is simulated in a Monte Carlo model. It rewrites the value as the difference between the current forward exchange rate for maturity and the contract strike, discounted using the domestic interest rate. Interest rate parity links that forward rate to the simulated spot rate and the foreign and domestic rates.
The result is an algebraic explanation of the stated valuation formula, not a numerical experiment or a broader xVA treatment. It assumes the rate and discounting setup in the formula; the document does not develop stochastic interest rates or discuss how modeling choices affect valuation.
Key ideas
- The FX forward value can be expressed as the current forward rate minus the contract strike, discounted to the valuation time.
- Interest rate parity expresses the forward rate using spot and the domestic and foreign interest rates.
- The strike is set at inception to the no-arbitrage forward rate for maturity.
- The derivation uses the stated rate assumptions and does not address stochastic interest rates.
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Full text
# Present value of an FX Forward contract at each simulation and time point node of a Monte Carlo simulation
# Present value of an FX Forward contract at each simulation and time point node of a Monte Carlo simulation
Recently I started dealing with the xVA and the associated EPE and ENE concepts.
In a numerical example of an FX Forward, after simulating the underlying FX spot $S_t$ (units of domestic per unit of foreign) using GBM ($S_{t} = S_{t-1}e^{(\mu-\frac{\sigma^{2}}{2})dt +\sigma\sqrt{dt}Z_{t-1}}$) the present value of the FX Forward contract for each time point and simulation node is calculated by the following equation:
$V_{t} = S_{t}e^{-r_{for}(T-t)} - Ke^{-r_{dom}(T-t)}$ (1)
In the above equation $S_{t}$ is the simulated underlying FX sport, $r_{for}$ is the interest rate of the foreign currency, $r_{dom}$ is the interest rate of the domestic currency, $T$ maturity, $t$ the time point and finally, $K$ the strike level which was determined at the inception of the contract as the forward exchange rate at maturity (i.e., no-arbitrage opportunities): $K = F_{0,T} = S_{0}e^{(r_{dom} - r_{for})T} $
How equation (1) is derived (I presume that the interest rate parity should be used)?
## Answer by Whitebeard13 (score 1, accepted)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/77862
An answer has already been provided in this discussion: How to price the FX forward contract under stochastic interest rates?
Here is a summary of the (backward) derivation of equation (1):
$$ V_{t} = S_{t}e^{-r_{for}(T-t)}-Ke^{-r_{dom}(T-t)} \Leftrightarrow$$ $$ V_{t} = \underbrace{\underbrace{(\underbrace{S_{t}e^{(r_{dom}-r_{for})(T-t)}}_{F_{t,T}\text{: FX forward rate for } T \text{ at } t}-K)}_{\text{FX forward payoff given } F_{t,T}}e^{-r_{dom}(T-t)}}_{\text{FX forward payoff discounted at } t}\Leftrightarrow$$Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.