Deriving Heston Call Probabilities Under Stock and Bond Numeraires
Summary
The document clarifies how Fourier inversion produces the two probabilities used in a European call valuation under the Heston model. The bond-numeraire probability is obtained by inverting the risk-neutral characteristic function of terminal log price. The stock-numeraire probability uses a change of measure: its characteristic function is the risk-neutral characteristic function shifted by one unit in the complex argument and divided by its value at minus the imaginary unit.
The call price combines the stock value times the stock-measure exercise probability with the discounted strike times the bond-measure exercise probability. This explains the normalization term that may appear to be missing when comparing formulas: it is part of the stock-measure probability and is balanced by the stock-numeraire payoff factor. The answer derives the result using a Radon–Nikodym change of measure and Gil-Pelaez inversion. It gives no numerical validation; applying the formulas requires a consistent definition of log price, characteristic function, and numeraire.
Key ideas
- Fourier inversion of the risk-neutral log-price characteristic function gives the bond-measure exercise probability.
- Changing to the stock numeraire shifts the characteristic-function argument and requires normalization by its value at minus the imaginary unit.
- A European call can be expressed using exercise probabilities under stock and bond numeraires.
- The apparent normalization discrepancy is resolved by combining the stock-measure probability with its numeraire payoff factor.
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# Confused about term disappearing in the heston model after going from stock to bond numeraire
# Confused about term disappearing in the heston model after going from stock to bond numeraire
Where does $\varphi(-i)$ go in the heston model? I know that we end up with (following the steps in [1][1] ) \begin{align*} \mathbb{Q}\big[\{S_T\geq K\}\big] &= \frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{\pi}\int_0^\infty \Re\left(\frac{e^{-i\ln(K)u}\varphi(u)}{iu}\right)\mathrm{d}u, \\ \mathbb{S}\big[\{S_T\geq K\}\big] &= \frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{\pi}\int_0^\infty \Re\left(\frac{e^{-i\ln(K)u}\varphi(u-i)}{iu\varphi(-i)}\right)\mathrm{d}u, \end{align*} With $\varphi$ the characteristic function under the bond numeraire.
However, most formulas I see online are of the form \begin{equation} C(t,S_t) = S_t \Big( \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{\pi}\int^{\infty}_{0} \Re ( \frac{ \varphi{(u-i)}}{iu } e^{-iu \ln K} ) du \Big) - Ke^{-r(T-t)} \Big( \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{\pi}\int^{\infty}_{0} \Re \Big( \frac{ \varphi{(u)}}{iu}e^{-iu \ln K} \Big) du \Big) \end{equation} And one can show that this is the correct form by doing a Monte Carlo simulation. Still, I don't understand what cancels out with $\varphi(-i) \;=\; \mathbb{E}^{Q}\bigl[e^{i(-\,i)\,X_{T}}\bigr] \;=\; \mathbb{E}^{Q}\bigl[e^{X_{T}}\bigr] \;=\; \mathbb{E}^{Q}\bigl[S_{T}\bigr] \;=\; S_{t}\,e^{\,r\,(T - t)}.$ Shouldn't the final formula be something along the lines of \begin{equation} \Big(S_t \frac{1}{2} + e^{-r(T-t)}\frac{1}{\pi}\int^{\infty}_{0} \Re ( \frac{ \varphi{(u-i)}}{iu } e^{-iu \ln K} ) du \Big) \end{equation} [1]: Deriving the solution for European call option in the Heston Model
## Answer by Kevin (score 2, accepted)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/83601
Geman, El-Karoui, and Rochet (1995) show that call option prices are given by \begin{align*} C = S_0e^{-qT}\mathbb{S}\big[\{S_T\geq K\}\big] - Ke^{-rT} \mathbb{Q}\big[\{S_T\geq K\}\big]. \end{align*} where $\mathbb{S}$ and $\mathbb{Q}$ are risk-neutral probability measures using the reinvested stock and risk-free bank account as numeraire, respectively. Let $k=\ln(K)$. By the inversion formula from Gil-Pelaez (1951) inversion formula, we obtain \begin{align*} \mathbb{S}\big[\{S_T\geq K\}\big] &= \mathbb{S}\big[\{\ln(S_T)\geq \ln(K)\}\big] \\ &= 1- F^{\mathbb{S}}_{\ln(S_T)}(k) \\ &= \frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{\pi}\int_0^\infty \text{Re}\left(\frac{e^{-iku}\varphi_{\ln(S_T)}^{\mathbb{S}}(u)}{iu}\right)\mathrm{d}u, \end{align*} where $\varphi_{\ln(S_T)}^{\mathbb{S}}$ is the characteristic function of $\ln(S_T)$ under $\mathbb{S}$. Using the Radon-Nikodym derivative, we get \begin{align*} \varphi_{\ln(S_T)}^{\mathbb{S}}(u) &= \mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{S}}\left[e^{iu\ln(S_T)}\right] \\ &= \mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[e^{iu\ln(S_T)}\frac{e^{\ln(S_T)}}{\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}[e^{\ln(S_T)}]}\right] \\ &=\frac{\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[e^{(iu+1)\ln(S_T)}\right]}{\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[e^{\ln(S_T)}\right]}\\ &=\frac{\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[e^{i(u-i)\ln(S_T)}\right]}{\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[e^{i(-i)\ln(S_T)}\right]} \\ &= \frac{\varphi_{\ln(S_T)}^\mathbb{Q}(u-i)}{\varphi_{\ln(S_T)}^\mathbb{Q}(-i)}. \end{align*} Similarly, \begin{align*} \mathbb{Q}\big[\{S_T\geq K\}\big] &= \mathbb{Q}\big[\{\ln(S_T)\geq \ln(K)\}\big] \\ &= 1- F^{\mathbb{Q}}_{\ln(S_T)}(k) \\ &= \frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{\pi}\int_0^\infty \text{Re}\left(\frac{e^{-iku}\varphi_{\ln(S_T)}^{\mathbb{Q}}(u)}{iu}\right)\mathrm{d}u. \end{align*}
Consequently, putting everything together, and denoting the risk-neutral characteristic function of the terminal log asset price by $\varphi$ (as opposed to $\varphi^\mathbb{Q}_{\ln(S_T)}$), we arrive at \begin{align*} \mathbb{S}\big[\{S_T\geq K\}\big] &= \frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{\pi}\int_0^\infty \text{Re}\left(\frac{e^{-iku}\varphi(u-i)}{iu\varphi(-i)}\right)\mathrm{d}u, \\ \mathbb{Q}\big[\{S_T\geq K\}\big] &= \frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{\pi}\int_0^\infty \text{Re}\left(\frac{e^{-iku}\varphi(u)}{iu}\right)\mathrm{d}u. \end{align*}Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.