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Deriving Hull–White Zero-Coupon Bond Prices from Short-Rate Dynamics

Article Quant Q&A · Author: quant1

Summary

The document derives a zero-coupon bond price for a Gaussian short-rate model with constant mean reversion and volatility, and a time-varying deterministic drift. Under the risk-neutral measure, it writes the short rate as a mean-reverting process and values the bond as the conditional expectation of the exponential of the negative integrated short rate.

Solving the rate process and integrating it over the bond’s life separates the integral into a term proportional to the current short rate, a deterministic drift integral, and a Gaussian stochastic integral. The latter permits evaluation of the conditional expectation and yields an exponential-affine bond price, with the loading on the current rate given by the familiar mean-reversion expression. The derivation provides formulas for both affine components without assuming the bond-price form at the outset. It relies on the stated model assumptions and does not address calibration, market fit, or extensions with other sources of risk.

Key ideas

  • Bond value is the risk-neutral conditional expectation of discounted payoff at maturity.
  • The short-rate process can be solved using an integrating factor.
  • Integrating the rate produces a current-rate term and Gaussian components.
  • The conditional Gaussian expectation yields an exponential-affine bond price.
  • The derivation assumes constant mean reversion and volatility with deterministic time-varying drift.

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Full text
# Extended Hull White Interest Rate Model for Zero Coupon Bond


# Extended Hull White Interest Rate Model for Zero Coupon Bond












Let's take the following three SDEs:

$$dr=u(r,t)dt + w(r,t)dX$$ $$u(r,t)=a(t)-br$$ $$w(r,t)=c$$

where $b$ and $c$ are constants and $a(t)$ an arbitrary function of time $t$.

If Zero Coupon Bond $Z(r,T,T)=1$ for this model has the form

$$Z(r,t,T)=e^{(A(t,T)-B(t,T)r)}$$

How do you find $A$ and $B$?

I have derived the PDE for this model using no arbitrage condition. Substituting this in the PDE is not giving the right answers.

## Answer by Gordon (score 9, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/21516

Here is a solution without using the PDE technique, which is preferred as we do not need to assume the affine form of a zero-coupon price from the start.

we assume that, under the risk-neutral measure, \begin{align*} dr_t = (\theta(t)-a r_t) dt + \sigma dW_t, \end{align*} where $a$ and $\sigma$ are constants, $a(t)$ is a deterministic function, and $W_t$ is a standard Brownian motion. We seek to compute the zero-coupon bond price defined by \begin{align*} P(t, T) &= E\left(e^{-\int_t^T r_s ds} \mid \mathcal{F}_t \right), \end{align*} where $\mathcal{F}_t$ is the information set up to time $t$. Note that \begin{align*} d\left(e^{at} r_t\right) &= be^{at}r_t dt + e^{at} dr_t\\ &=\theta(t)e^{at} dt + \sigma e^{at} dW_t. \end{align*} Then, for $s \geq t \geq 0$, \begin{align*} e^{as} r_s = e^{at} r_t + \int_t^s \theta(u)e^{au} du + \int_t^s \sigma e^{au} dW_u. \end{align*} That is, \begin{align*} r_s = e^{-a(s-t)} r_t + \int_t^s \theta(u)e^{-a(s-u)} du + \int_t^s \sigma e^{-a(s-u)} dW_u. \end{align*} We then have the integral \begin{align*} &\ \int_t^T r_s ds \\ =&\ r_t \int_t^T e^{-a(s-t)} ds + \int_t^T\!\!\!\!\int_t^s \theta(u)e^{-a(s-u)} du ds + \int_t^T\!\!\!\!\int_t^s\sigma e^{-a(s-u)} dW_u ds\\ =&\ \frac{1}{a}\Big(1-e^{-a(T-t)} \Big) r_t + \int_t^T\!\!\!\!\int_u^T \theta(u)e^{-a(s-u)} ds du + \int_t^T\!\!\!\!\int_u^T \sigma e^{-a(s-u)} ds dW_u\\ =&\ \frac{1}{a}\Big(1-e^{-a(T-t)} \Big) r_t + \int_t^T\!\! \frac{\theta(u)}{a}\Big(1-e^{-a(T-u)} \Big)du + \int_t^T \!\!\frac{\sigma}{a}\Big(1-e^{-a(T-u)} \Big)dW_u. \end{align*} Let \begin{align*} B(t, T) = \frac{1}{a}\Big(1-e^{-a(T-t)} \Big). \end{align*} Then, \begin{align*} \int_t^T r_s ds &= B(t, T) r_t + \int_t^T \theta(u) B(u, T) du + \int_t^T \sigma B(u, T) dW_u. \end{align*} Moreover, the zero-coupon bond price is then given by \begin{align*} P(t, T) &= E\left(e^{-\int_t^T r_s ds} \mid \mathcal{F}_t \right)\\ &=\exp\left(-B(t, T) r_t - \int_t^T \theta(u) B(u, T) du + \frac{1}{2}\int_t^T \sigma^2 B(u, T)^2 du\right). \end{align*} Note that \begin{align*} \int_t^T \sigma^2 B(u, T)^2 du &= \frac{\sigma^2}{a^2}\int_t^T \left(1 - 2e^{-a(T-u)} + e^{-2a(T-u)}\right) du\\ &=\frac{\sigma^2}{a^2}\left(T-t-\frac{2}{a}\Big(1-e^{-a(T-t)}\Big) +\frac{1}{2a} \Big(1-e^{-2a(T-t)}\Big) \right)\\ &= \frac{\sigma^2}{a^2}\left(T-t -\frac{1}{2a}\Big(1-e^{-a(T-t)}\Big)^2-\frac{1}{a}\Big(1-e^{-a(T-t)}\Big)\right)\\ &= -\frac{\sigma^2}{a^2}\big(B(t, T) -T+t\big)-\frac{\sigma^2}{2a}B(t, T)^2. \end{align*} Then \begin{align*} P(t, T) &= A(t, T) e^{-B(t, T) r_t}, \end{align*} where \begin{align*} A(t, T) &= \exp\left(- \int_t^T \theta(u) B(u, T) du -\frac{\sigma^2}{2a^2}\big(B(t, T) -T+t\big)-\frac{\sigma^2}{4a}B(t, T)^2\right). \end{align*}

See http://www.math.nyu.edu/~benartzi/Slides10.3.pdf for another derivation using the PDE approach.

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.