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Deriving Normal Log Returns and Zero Covariance from Brownian Motion

Article Quant Q&A · Author: MortenSw

Summary

The document shows how equally spaced log returns follow a normal distribution when log prices are modeled as a constant drift plus scaled Brownian motion. Subtracting adjacent log prices removes the initial price and leaves the drift over one interval plus the Brownian increment. Since that increment is normal, each return has mean equal to the drift times the interval length and variance equal to the volatility squared times the interval length.

It also shows that consecutive returns have zero covariance. Their random components are Brownian increments over non-overlapping intervals, which are independent and have zero means. The result follows under the stated constant-parameter Brownian model and equally spaced observations. It explains a theoretical property of the model; actual market returns need not have normal distributions or uncorrelated adjacent observations.

Key ideas

  • A log return is the drift over an interval plus a scaled Brownian increment.
  • Equally spaced Brownian increments give returns with the same normal distribution at each step.
  • The return mean is drift times the interval length, and its variance scales with that length.
  • Consecutive returns have zero covariance because their Brownian increments are independent.
  • These properties follow from the model assumptions and are not guaranteed for observed market data.

Tags

Full text
# How to show that a Brownian motion is normally distributed and that the covariance is zero?


# How to show that a Brownian motion is normally distributed and that the covariance is zero?












I need help under standing this question. So i have the following given the logarithm of the price of a share of stock is given by

\begin{align*} p(t)=p(0)+\mu t+\sigma W(t), \quad t \in[0, T] \end{align*} where $p(0) \in \mathbb{R}$ is some fixed initial value, $\mu \in \mathbb{R}$ and $\sigma>0$ are constants, and $W(t)$ is a Brownian motion.

I know that the Brownian motion $W(t)$ has the properties

- $W(0)=0$

- $W$ has independent increments, i.e. if $0 \leq r<s \leq t<u,$ then \begin{align*} W(u)-W(t) \text { and } W(s)-W(r) \end{align*} are independent.

- The increments are normally distributed, i.e. \begin{align*} W(t)-W(s) \sim N(0, t-s) \end{align*} for all $0 \leq s \leq t$. Suppose that we have observed the price $p(t)$ at $n+1$ equidistant points \begin{align*} 0=t_{0}<t_{1}<\ldots<t_{n}=T \end{align*} with \begin{align*} t_{i}=\frac{i}{n} T, \quad i=0, \ldots, n \end{align*} I am given that the $n$ log-returns given as \begin{align*} r\left(t_{i}\right)=p\left(t_{i}\right)-p\left(t_{i-1}\right), \quad i=1, \ldots, n \end{align*}

I need to show the following

$r\left(t_{i}\right) \sim N\left(\mu \frac{T}{n}, \sigma^{2} \frac{T}{n}\right)$ and that $\operatorname{cov}\left(r\left(t_{i}\right), r\left(t_{i-1}\right)\right)=0$

## Answer by Pleb (score 1, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/60518

Normality of returns follows from the fact that the Brownian increments are normal distributed (property 3), $W(t_i)-W(t_{i-1}) \sim N(0,t_i-t_{i-1})$, and furthermore that $t_i-t_{i-1}=T(\frac{i}{n}-\frac{i-1}{n})=\frac{T}{n}$. See that:

\begin{align} r(t_i)&=p(t_i)-p(t_{i-1})\\ &=\left[p(0)+\mu\cdot t_i + \sigma W(t_i) \right] - \left[p(0)+\mu\cdot t_{i-1} + \sigma W(t_{i-1}) \right]\\ &= \mu (t_i-t_{i-1})+\sigma(W(t_i)-W(t_{i-1}))\\ &\overset{d}{=} \mu (t_i-t_{i-1}) + N\left(0,\sigma^2(t_i-t_{i-1})\right)\\ &=N\left(\mu\frac{T}{n},\sigma^2 \frac{T}{n}\right) \end{align} Now, the covariance of the returns follows directly from the independent increments property of Brownian motions. Under an alternative notation, $W(t_i)=W_{t_i}$, we have:

\begin{align} \small{Cov\left(r(t_i),r(t_{i-1})\right)} &= \small{\sigma^2 Cov\left(W_{t_i}-W_{t_{i-1}},\: W_{t_{i-1}}-W_{t_{i-2}} \right)}\\ &=\small{\sigma^2 \cdot (\mathbb{E}\left[(W_{t_{i}}-W_{t_{i-1}})\cdot (W_{t_{i-1}}-W_{t_{i-2}})\right]-\mathbb{E}\left[W_{t_{i}}-W_{t_{i-1}}\right]\cdot \mathbb{E}\left[W_{t_{i-1}}-W_{t_{i-2}}\right])}\\ &=\small{\sigma^2 \cdot (\mathbb{E}\left[(W_{t_{i}}-W_{t_{i-1}})\cdot (W_{t_{i-1}}-W_{t_{i-2}})\right] - 0)}\\ &=\small{\sigma^2 \cdot (\mathbb{E}\left[(W_{t_{i}}-W_{t_{i-1}})\right] \mathbb{E}\left[(W_{t_{i-1}}-W_{t_{i-2}})\right])}\\ &=\small{0}, \end{align} where we have used the independent increments property in the last equation and furthermore that the increments have expectation zero.

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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.