Deriving the Exponential Moment of a Normal Variable
Summary
The document derives the expectation of an exponential applied to a standard normal variable, a step used in the risk-neutral log-normal model for an asset price. It sets the volatility-time scale as a parameter, writes the expectation as an integral against the standard normal density, and completes the square in the exponent. The resulting integrand is a shifted normal density, whose integral over the real line equals one. This leaves the exponential of one-half the squared scale parameter.
Substituting volatility times the square root of time gives the moment needed to simplify the expected terminal asset price under the stated log-normal model to the initial price grown at the risk-free rate. The derivation is mathematical rather than empirical and assumes a normally distributed shock with the specified standard deviation. The exchange also observes that the related transform can be described as a two-sided Laplace transform, but does not develop applications beyond the pricing derivation.
Key ideas
- The exponential moment of a standard normal variable can be evaluated by integrating against its density.
- Completing the square turns the integrand into a shifted normal density times a constant factor.
- The shifted density integrates to one over the real line, yielding the exponential of half the squared scale parameter.
- This identity simplifies the expected terminal price in a risk-neutral log-normal model.
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# Log-normal risk-neutral price derivation from binomial trees, not clear about step in derivation process
# Log-normal risk-neutral price derivation from binomial trees, not clear about step in derivation process
At page 64 of the book Concepts and practice of mathematical finance, 2nd edition by M. Joshi, paragraph 3.7.2 (Trees and option pricing - A log-normal model - The risk-neutral world behaviour) a quick exercise is presented:
> Show that $$ \mathbb{E}( \exp(\sigma \sqrt{T} N(0,1) ) ) = \exp(0.5 \, \sigma^2 T) $$ where $\mathbb{E}$ indicates the expected value of the expression inside brackets, in which $\sigma$ is the volatility of the underlying asset, $T$ is the option expiration time, and $N(0,1)$ is the normal distribution.
How to verify this relation? Solution is not provided.
For context, this term is useful to simplify the log-normal expected value of the asset at expiry, $$\mathbb{E} (S_T) = \mathbb{E}(S_0 exp{((r - 0.5 \sigma^2) T + \sigma \sqrt{T} N(0, 1))}$$ to $$\mathbb{E} (S_T) = S_0 exp({r T})$$
EDIT: this question reappears as exercise 3.13 at page 72 of Concepts and practice of mathematical finance, 2nd edition. Solution is at the back of the book, and follows the line provided in the accepted answer below.
## Answer by Daneel Olivaw (score 2, accepted)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/58391
Let $X\sim N(0,1)$ be a standard normal variable and $\alpha:=\sigma\sqrt{T}$, then by definition of the expectation and the distribution of normal variables: $$\begin{align} \mathbb{E}\left(e^{\alpha X}\right) &=\int_{-\infty}^{\infty}e^{\alpha x}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-\frac{x^2}{2}}dx \\ &=\int_{-\infty}^{\infty}e^{\alpha x+\frac{1}{2}\alpha^2-\frac{1}{2}\alpha^2}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-\frac{x^2}{2}}dx \\ &=e^{\frac{1}{2}\alpha^2}\int_{-\infty}^{\infty}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-\frac{1}{2}\left(x^2-2\alpha x+\alpha^2\right)}dx \\ &=e^{\frac{1}{2}\alpha^2}\int_{-\infty}^{\infty}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-\frac{(x-\alpha)^2}{2}}dx \\[3pt] &=e^{\frac{1}{2}\alpha^2} \end{align}$$ The last step is merely the consequence that the last integral is over the probability density function of a normal variable with mean $\alpha$ and variance $1$ taken with respect to the whole real numbers $\mathbb{R}$, hence it integrates to 1.
Anecdotally, the expression $\mathbb{E}(e^{-\beta X})$ with $\beta:=-\alpha$ is sometimes called the (two-sided) Laplace transform of the random variable $X$.Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.