Discounting a Mortgage Prepayment Claim with Separate Reference and Short Rates
Summary
The document describes a zero-coupon-style claim on mortgage principal that pays when the borrower prepays or, if no prepayment occurs, at maturity. It models the prepayment time as a stopping time triggered when a mortgage reference rate falls below a threshold. The proposed valuation discounts the principal from the present to the payment time, using the short rate accumulated up to prepayment or maturity, and asks whether this is the correct risk-neutral pricing formula.
The answer points out a potential modeling ambiguity: the same rate symbol is used both for the mortgage reference rate that triggers refinancing and for the short rate used to discount cash flows. These rates would generally be expected to differ; a mortgage reference rate may be a longer-term rate. The response therefore suggests distinguishing the trigger rate from the discounting rate. It does not provide a full valuation model, specify the rate dynamics, or account for borrower behavior beyond the stated threshold rule, so the proposed formula is not independently established.
Key ideas
- The claim pays principal upon prepayment or at the stated maturity if prepayment does not occur.
- A threshold crossing in a mortgage reference rate defines the proposed prepayment time.
- The payoff is discounted over the period from valuation to the payment time.
- The mortgage reference rate and the short rate used for discounting should be distinguished.
- The answer flags a modeling issue but does not derive a complete price.
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Full text
# Price of a prepayment-based claim
# Price of a prepayment-based claim
I am trying to determine the pricing formula for a given claim inspired in prepayment obligations backed by mortgage portfolios $-$ I believe these were popular in the eighties.
The product mechanism is the following: consider an underlying mortgage of principal $N$ which is contracted at $t=0$ and which must be reimbursed at $t=T$, from which the principal payment has been stripped from the interest payments $-$ hence we are essentially considering a zero-coupon bond paying $N$ at $T$. However, the borrower has also the option to prepay the full amount at any time $t$ between $0$ and $T$. The buyer of the product will then get the amount $N$ when the borrower decides to pay.
Now, let's define the stopping time $\tau$ as the time at which the borrower decides to prepay. For example, you could assume that the borrower will prepay and subsequently refinance its mortgage if the mortgage's reference interest rate $r(t)$ decreases below a certain level $L$. In such a case, we would have:
$$\tau = \min\{t: r(t) \leq L, \: 0\leq t\leq T\}$$
My question is: is the price of this claim at $0$, $P_0$, given by the following risk-neutral expectation?
$$P_0 = \mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[N\left(\mathbb{I}_{\{\tau<T\}}e^{-\int_0^{\tau}r(t)dt}+\mathbb{I}_{\{\tau\geq T\}}e^{-\int_0^{T}r(t)dt}\right)\right]$$
My doubt is mainly related to the first discount factor, which goes from $0$ to $\tau$.
## Answer by dm63 (score 1)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/32946
What looks odd to me is that r(t) is used in two places. First, as the mortgage reference rate , and second as the short rate ( for discounting). I would have expected these rates to differ. In the US, the reference mortgage rate is more of a long dated rate, for example. So the formula should refer to r1(t) and r2(t) in my opinion.Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.