Distribution of a Time-Weighted Brownian Motion Integral
Summary
The document derives the distribution of the integral of time multiplied by Brownian motion over a fixed interval. Although the integral can be expressed as a difference of Gaussian terms, those terms are correlated, so their distributions cannot be combined as if they were independent. The main derivation applies Itô’s formula to a time-dependent function, rewriting the quantity as an Itô integral with a deterministic integrand.
A deterministic-integrand Itô integral is normally distributed, and the Itô isometry gives its variance. The result is a zero-mean normal distribution with variance proportional to the fifth power of the interval endpoint. The document also gives equivalent derivations using stochastic Fubini and integration by parts, plus a discretization argument whose variances converge to the same value. These methods rely on standard Brownian motion assumptions; the result is a probability calculation rather than a trading strategy or empirical market finding.
Key ideas
- The integral can be rewritten as an Itô integral with a deterministic integrand.
- A deterministic-integrand Itô integral of Brownian motion is normally distributed.
- The Itô isometry determines the variance of the integral.
- Correlated Gaussian terms cannot be combined using an independence assumption.
- Stochastic Fubini and integration by parts provide alternative derivations of the same distribution.
Tags
Full text
# Finding distribution of $\int_0 ^T uW_u du$
# Finding distribution of $\int_0 ^T uW_u du$
I would like to find the distribution of $\int_0 ^T uW_u du$ where $(W_u)_{u\geq0}$ is the Brownian motion.
What I have tried:
$$\int_0 ^T uW_u du = \int_0 ^T B_udu - \int_0^T \int_0^tB_sdsdt$$ by integration by parts. I know each term on the RHS is normal as any integration of a Gaussian process is again a Gaussian process.
However, I cannot conclude RHS is normals since I don't have independence of $\int_0 ^T B_udu $ and $\int_0^T \int_0^tB_sdsdt$ since $Cov(\int_0 ^T B_udu, \int_0^T \int_0^tB_sdsdt)=T^4 /8 \neq 0$
Any help is appreciated.
## Answer by LocalVolatility (score 20, accepted)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/39689
Using the Ito Formula
The general approach that often works for these kinds of question is to search for functions such that their Ito differential contains the terms that we are interested in. In your case, we are looking for a function $f(t, x)$ such that $f_t(t, x) = t x$. Let
\begin{equation} f(t, x) = \frac{1}{2} t^2 x \end{equation}
with
\begin{equation} f_t(t, x) = t x, \qquad f_x(t, x) = \frac{1}{2} t^2, \qquad f_{xx}(t, x) = 0. \end{equation}
Applying the Ito formula yields
\begin{equation} \frac{1}{2} T^2 W_T = \int_0^T u W_u \mathrm{d}u + \frac{1}{2} \int_0^T u^2 \mathrm{d}W_u \end{equation}
or
\begin{equation} \int_0^T u W_u \mathrm{d}u = \frac{1}{2} \int_0^T \left( T^2 - u^2 \right) \mathrm{d}W_u. \end{equation}
The Ito integral of a deterministic integrand is normally distributed with zero mean and variance
\begin{equation} \text{Var} \left( \int_0^T (T^2 - u^2) \mathrm{d}W_u \right) = \int_0^T \left( T^2 - u^2 \right)^2 \mathrm{d}u = \frac{8}{15} T^5 \end{equation}
and we conclude that
\begin{equation} \int_0^T u W_u \mathrm{d}u \sim \mathcal{N} \left( 0, \frac{2}{15} T^5 \right). \end{equation}
Discretizing the Integral
Alternatively, we could write
\begin{equation} \int_0^T u W_u \mathrm{d}u = \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} X_n, \qquad X_n = \sum_{i = 1}^n \underbrace{t_i W_{t_i}}_{Y_i} \Delta_n, \end{equation}
where $\Delta_n = T / n$ and $t_i = i \Delta_n$. Then, each $Y_i$ is normal with mean zero and covariance
\begin{equation} \text{Cov} \left( Y_i, Y_j \right) = t_i t_j \min \left\{ t_i, t_j \right\} = i j \min \{ i, j \} \Delta_n^3 . \end{equation}
Letting $\bar{Y}_n$ be the corresponding column-vector with elements $\left( Y_1, Y_2, \ldots, Y_n \right)'$, we get in matrix form
\begin{equation} \bar{\Sigma}_n = \mathbb{E} \left[ \bar{Y}_n \bar{Y}_n' \right] = \Delta_n^3 \left[ \begin{array}{c c c c} 1 & 2 & \dots & n\\ 2 & 8 & \dots & 4 n\\ 3 & 12 & \ddots & \vdots\\ n & 4 n & \dots & n^3 \end{array} \right] \end{equation}
As the weighted sum of normally distributed random variables is itself normally distributed, it follows that $X_n \sim \mathcal{N} \left( 0, \Delta_n \bar{1}_n \bar{\Sigma}_n \bar{1}_n' \Delta_n \right)$, where $\bar{1}_n$ is an $n$-dimensional column vector of ones. We have
\begin{eqnarray} \text{Var} \left( X_n \right) & = & \Delta_n^5 \sum_{i = 1}^n \left( i \sum_{j = 1}^i j^2 + i^2 \sum_{j = i + 1}^n j \right)\\ & = & \Delta_n^5 \left( \sum_{i = 1}^n \left( \frac{1}{3} i^4 + \mathcal{O} \left( i^3 \right) + i^2 \left( \frac{1}{2} n^2 - \frac{1}{2} i^2 + \mathcal{O}(i) + \mathcal{O}(n) \right) \right) \right)\\ & = & \Delta_n^5 \left( \frac{1}{15} n^5 + \frac{1}{6} n^5 - \frac{1}{10} n^5 + \mathcal{O}\left( n^4 \right) \right) \\ & = & \Delta_n^5 \left( \frac{2}{15} n^5 + \mathcal{O}\left( n^4 \right) \right) \end{eqnarray}
Note that $\Delta_n^5 = \mathcal{O} \left( n^{-5} \right)$. Thus, we have
\begin{equation} \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} \text{Var} \left( X_n \right) = \frac{2}{15} T^5, \end{equation}
just like before.
## Answer by Quantuple (score 12)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/39691
Another approach consists in using the Fubini theorem to write that \begin{align} \int_0^T u W_u du &= \int_0^T \int_0^u u\, dW_v\, du \tag{$W_u = \int_0^u dW_v$} \\ &= \int_0^T \int_v^T u\, du\, dW_v \tag{Fubini}\\ &= \frac{1}{2}\int_0^T (T^2 - v^2) dW_v \end{align} This is an Itô integral. Since the integrand is deterministic it is Gaussian distributed with zero mean and variance given by the Itô isometry $$ \int_0^T u W_u du \sim N\left(0, \frac{1}{4}\int_0^T (T^2 - v^2)^2 dv \right) $$
## Answer by Anton Tsches (score 4)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/39688
First, you should apply the integration by parts:
$\int_0^T uW_udu = \frac{u^2}{2}W_u \mid_0^T - \int_0^T\frac{u^2}{2}dW_u $, where both parts are normally distributed. The variance of the first summand is $(\frac{T^2}{2})^2T = \frac{T^5}{4}$ by definition, the variance of the second summand can be found by Ito Isometry: $ Var \left( \int_0^T\frac{u^2}{2}dW_u \right) = E \left(\int_0^T\frac{u^2}{2}dW_u \right)^2 = \int_0^TE\frac{u^4}{4}du = \frac{T^5}{20} $. These two terms are correlated so we have to calculate the co-variance (again using Ito Isometry):
$ Cov(\frac{T^2}{2}W_T, \int_0^T\frac{u^2}{2}dW_u) = \frac{T^2}{2}E(W_T\int_0^T\frac{u^2}{2}dW_u) = \frac{T^2}{2}E(\int_0^TdW_u\int_0^T\frac{u^2}{2}dW_u) = \\ \frac{T^2}{2}\int_0^T\frac{u^2}{2}du = \frac{T^5}{12} $
So, as $ Var(X-Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y) - 2Cov(X,Y) $, we obtain that:
$ Var(\int_0^T uW_udu) = \frac{T^5}{4} + \frac{T^5}{20} - \frac{T^5}{6} = \frac{2T^5}{15} $,
so as the expectation of Ito integral is 0, $\int_0^T uW_udu $ ~ $ N(0, \frac{2T^5}{15}) $Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.