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Dividend Yields in Binomial Option Pricing

Article Quant Q&A · Author: evan54

Summary

The note explains how a continuous dividend yield affects risk-neutral probabilities in a binomial option model. The probability of an up move must reflect the stock’s expected growth after dividends, using the risk-free rate adjusted by the yield. The backward-induction discount factor, however, remains based on the risk-free rate.

The explanation derives this distinction by accounting for dividends in the stock’s value: under the model, the expected stock value at the next step includes both risk-free growth and the reduction associated with the dividend yield. Solving that relation gives the adjusted probability while leaving the discounting rule intact. The note points to other ways of representing dividends in a binomial tree, but does not compare those methods or give a full worked example. Its guidance concerns continuous yields within this pricing setup; other dividend conventions may require a different model specification.

Key ideas

  • A continuous dividend yield changes the risk-neutral up-move probability in a binomial tree.
  • The probability adjustment uses the risk-free rate net of the dividend yield.
  • Backward induction still discounts option values at the risk-free rate.
  • The yield adjustment reflects the reduction in stock value associated with dividends.

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Full text
# binary tree options pricing model with dividend value - How should I discount the option at?


# binary tree options pricing model with dividend value - How should I discount the option at?












the expected value of the option given the next period up, down values is:

$ Pexp = (p Price_{next, up} + (1 - p) Price_{next, down})/R$

where p is defined as $p = \frac{\exp(-r \times \Delta t) - d}{u - d}$ w/o a dividend yield and $p = \frac{\exp(-(r - q) \times \Delta t) - d}{u-d}$ with a dividend yield

Now I know from here that R is something like $\exp(-r \times \Delta t)$ however with a continuous dividend yield of q would it be $\exp(-(r-q) \times \Delta t)$ changing in a similar way that p changes?

Wikipedia says that it souldn't be, but trying both ways the second one gives the same result as the example here, slide 22, so I think that R should change in a similar way that p changes and effectively the new risk free rate is adjusted by q.

thanks

## Answer by Probilitator (score 1, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/10295

No the discounting factor that you use for backward induction won't change. (confer here Chapter IV)

This is only seems confusiong due to the mathematical formulation. Introducing continuous dividends basically adjusts your stock price (down) by discoutning the divididend (for it is paid out and thus dicreases the stock value). Your "risk-free" stock value at $t$ becomes $S_0 e^{r\Delta t}e^{-q \Delta t}$ instead of $S_0 e^{r\Delta t}$.

This leads to the following equation $$ S_0 e^{r\Delta t}e^{-q \Delta t}=pS_0u+(1-p)S_0d$$

Solving for $p$ gives your the desired result

Also note that there are several approaches to modelling dividends in a binomial model setting. Same document as above (Chapter IV)

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.