Dual Hull Moving Average Crossovers for Trend Following

Summary

This document describes a trend following strategy that compares a standard Hull Moving Average (HMA) with a differently smoothed HMA variant. It generates a long signal when the smoothed line crosses above the standard line and a short signal when the standard line crosses above the smoothed line. The stated execution logic closes the opposing position before entering the new direction. Trend coloring and signal markers provide visual context.

The document explains the weighted moving average calculations and suggests the method aims to balance responsiveness with noise reduction. It gives a BTC/USDT futures backtest configuration over a stated date range, but reports no performance results, so it does not establish profitability. The discussion flags whipsaws in sideways markets, lag during abrupt moves, sensitivity to the HMA length, reliance on a single indicator, and the absence of an integrated stop loss. Suggested extensions include trend and volume filters, volatility-adjusted parameters, risk-based sizing, and protective exits. The source’s HMA3 calculation uses closing prices even though the strategy description says the input price source can be adjusted.

Key ideas

• The strategy compares a standard HMA with a smoothed HMA variant to generate directional crossover signals.
• A crossover closes the opposing position before opening a position in the new direction.
• The document warns that sideways markets can cause repeated false signals and that moving averages still lag.
• The described implementation has no integrated stop loss, and its results are not reported.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.