Dual Hull Moving Average Trend Signals and Their Limits

Summary

The document presents a long-only trend strategy built around a Hull moving average and a second line formed by its value two bars earlier. The source logic enters when the current Hull value is above the lagged value and closes the long when it is below. Although the prose describes price crossing a middle rail, the code compares two Hull values; the upper and lower rails are also plotted as delayed values, rather than separate price averages. It offers selectable Hull variants and parameters, with a published BTC/USDT futures backtest window, but reports no performance results or evidence that the proposed signals are profitable.

The note argues that Hull averages may respond faster than conventional moving averages and suggests the method for trend tracking. It also identifies whipsaws in sideways markets, residual lag, and excessive trading as risks. Suggested additions include stop losses, trend filters, multi-timeframe checks, and entry confirmation. These are proposals rather than tested improvements, and the published code does not include those safeguards.

Key ideas

• The source enters long when the Hull value is above its value from two bars earlier and closes below it.
• The written description says price crosses a middle rail, which differs from the comparison implemented in the code.
• The strategy allows HMA, EHMA, or THMA variants and configurable inputs.
• The document warns that sideways price action can create repeated signals and overtrading.
• The published backtest settings identify a BTC/USDT futures period but provide no performance statistics.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.