EMA Crossover Trend Following with an SMMA Price Filter

Summary

This trend-following system combines a 10-period EMA and a 22-period EMA with a 200-period smoothed moving average (SMMA) filter. It signals a long when the short EMA crosses above the long EMA and price is above the SMMA; a short signal requires a downward crossover with price below the filter. Additional 50-, 100-, and 200-period EMAs are plotted as possible support and resistance references, but the stated entry rules do not use them as conditions.

The document argues that the SMMA confirmation may filter some false signals and help align trades with the broader direction. It reports no backtest performance or other empirical evidence; the published settings describe BTC/USDT futures on a two-day period across roughly five years. The stated limitations include crossover lag, frequent false signals in ranges, confusion from multiple averages, and drawdowns during sharp volatility or reversals. Volume, volatility-based sizing, stop and target rules, and trend-strength filters are suggested as future additions rather than tested components.

Key ideas

• The strategy enters long on an upward 10/22 EMA crossover when price is above the 200-period SMMA.
• It enters short on a downward crossover when price is below the SMMA.
• The 50-, 100-, and 200-period EMAs are described as visual support and resistance references.
• The document gives no performance results, and the listed backtest settings do not establish profitability.
• Moving-average lag and range-bound whipsaws are key limitations; risk controls and filters are suggested for further work.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.