EMA Trend Filter with MACD Reversal Entries and RSI Exits

Summary

This long-only system combines a slow trend filter with momentum and oscillator signals. It treats the market as bullish when the 50-period EMA is above the 200-period EMA, then looks for MACD below zero that has begun turning upward as an entry. It exits when RSI falls back through 70 after being above that level, or when the short EMA drops below the long EMA as a stop condition.

The document presents the method and a brief backtest configuration for BTC/USDT futures on 15-minute bars over one week in January 2025. It supplies no reported returns, trade count, or risk statistics, so the setup alone does not establish effectiveness. The stated limitations include moving-average lag, whipsaws in sideways markets, sensitivity to parameter choices, and reliance on a clear trend. Suggested extensions include adapting indicator periods, adding volume confirmation, and adjusting position size to signal strength and volatility.

Key ideas

• The 50-period and 200-period EMAs define the permitted upward trend context.
• Entries require MACD to remain below zero while turning upward within that bullish context.
• An RSI cross down through 70 or a bearish EMA relationship closes the long position.
• The published test configuration uses BTC/USDT futures on 15-minute bars for one week, without reported performance results.
• The method may lag or whipsaw in sideways markets and is sensitive to parameter choices.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.