EMA Trend Following with ADX-Adjusted ATR Thresholds
Summary
OneTrend Lite combines fast and slow exponential moving averages with ADX and ATR to classify market conditions. A 30-period fast EMA and 60-period slow EMA produce a spread, while ADX selects between stronger and weaker ATR multipliers. The strategy signals bullish conditions when the spread exceeds the positive volatility threshold and bearish conditions when it falls below the negative threshold; it enters long in bullish conditions and closes that position in bearish conditions.
The document includes backtest tables for several crypto assets and three OneTrend variants, but the headline results show substantial drawdowns and vary widely by asset and method. The stated test configuration is hourly BNB/USDT futures over roughly a year, which does not establish the table results as robust or directly comparable. The notes also identify EMA lag, whipsaws in sideways markets, and parameter sensitivity as key limitations. The approach is presented as a trend filter and signal method, not as a complete risk-managed system; stop placement and broader validation are suggested as areas for further work.
Key ideas
- The strategy compares 30-period and 60-period EMAs to estimate trend direction.
- ADX selects a stronger or weaker ATR multiplier for the trend threshold.
- A long position opens in bullish conditions and closes when the signal turns bearish.
- The document reports varied historical results alongside large drawdowns across assets and strategy variants.
- EMA lag, sideways-market signals, and parameter sensitivity limit the approach.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.