Evaluating ETH Prediction Trades with Probability, Execution, and Risk Controls

Summary

The article describes a Polymarket strategy for 15-minute ETH up-or-down contracts. Chainlink supplies the round’s official reference and settlement price, Binance provides supporting short-term market information, and Polymarket’s order book determines executable prices and costs. During a limited late-round entry window, the model compares a conservative estimated win probability with depth-adjusted fill cost, fees, and an allowance for exit costs. It also filters signals by volatility, price movement, spread, depth, and repeated confirmation on new data ticks.

The design emphasizes implementation and risk management: persistent order intents, reconciliation of partial fills, fail-closed behavior when order status is uncertain, and shadow trading with settlement-based calibration. The author recommends gathering a substantial sample before live use and notes that small nominal orders can still represent high account risk. The article supplies detailed thresholds and operational procedures, but reports no validated profitability results. Its probability assumptions, thresholds, venue behavior, and execution costs require ongoing empirical testing; successful startup or a high estimated win rate does not establish positive expected value.

Key ideas

• Use Chainlink for the official reference and settlement, Binance as supporting data, and Polymarket for executable prices.
• Estimate a conservative win probability and compare it with fill cost, fees, and exit costs before entering.
• Require fresh data, depth checks, and repeated signal confirmation before placing an order.
• Persist order intent and reconcile order reports, trades, and positions to avoid duplicate or uncertain trades.
• Use shadow samples and settlement outcomes to calibrate the model before considering live trading.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.