Expected Exposure and CVA for Options and Shares
Summary
The document distinguishes expected exposure from the purchase cost of an investment. It defines expected positive exposure at a future time as the expected value of the positive part of a trade’s value. For a long option or share, the answer notes that under risk-neutral valuation, discounted exposure can have an initial value equal to the instrument’s current value; this does not mean future exposure is fixed at that amount.
For a derivative contract, exposure matters because a counterparty may default while owing the holder a positive value. CVA aggregates potential losses over the life of the trade, weighted by default probability. The answer contrasts this with owning a share, whose value already reflects company credit risk, and says CVA is more relevant to share-lending agreements than to the share itself. The discussion is conceptual and points to a reference; precise CVA calculations depend on definitions, discounting, and default modeling.
Key ideas
- Expected positive exposure is the expected value of the positive portion of a trade’s future value.
- Discounted exposure for an option or share can have an initial value equal to its current value under the stated martingale reasoning.
- Derivative exposure represents value at risk from a counterparty failing to pay an amount owed.
- CVA weights potential positive exposure by the probability of counterparty default over time.
- A share’s own value reflects company default risk, while share lending introduces counterparty exposure.
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# How to interpret the (expected) exposure and CVA of an option or a single share
# How to interpret the (expected) exposure and CVA of an option or a single share
I have a quick (hopefully simple) question regarding the interpretation of the expected exposure of a call option and a single share. I've done some computations on the formula for the expected exposure and this yielded that the expected exposure of both the option and the share, are equal to their initial value, i.e. $EE(t)^{option}=V(t_0)$ and $EE(t)^{stock}=S(t_0)$. I arrived at these results by using that both the discounted option value and the discounted stock value are martingales under the risk neutral measure. However, I'm reading mixed definitions on what just the term exposure actually is. Some say it is what you could lose on an investment, which would go well with my results, but others say it is what you could lose if things go bad, i.e. if you own a share worth $100$ euros/dollars, then this is your exposure no matter what you purchased it for.
Could anyone help me in clarifying what the concept of exposure/expected exposure means for these two objects? The concept is slightly easier to grasp for swaps, but for products as 'basic' as these, it seems to be harder to understand. The same holds for how to think about the CVA of a single share, which I also have a hard time wrapping my head around.
Thanks in advance!
## Answer by Daneel Olivaw (score 3, accepted)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/46223
For a very nice reference on this matter, I recommend Pykhtin and Zhu’s Guide to Modelling Counterparty Credit Exposure, a short paper that thoroughly defines these concepts.
Expected Exposure $EE(t)$ (also known as Expected Positive Exposure) for a trade with value $V(t)$ is given by: $$EE(t)=\mathbb{E}[\max(0,V(t))]$$ It is effectively “what you could lose on an investment” (you can also define discounted EE in which case you rightly find that for an option or a share the value at initial time $t_0$ of discounted EE is the value of the option or share). EE gives the expected value to you of the deal at a future time $t$, hence it is the loss you can incur if “things go bad”. What does that mean?
Well for an option, which is really a contract between two parties, the risk is that your counterparty in that deal goes bankrupt for example and does not pay you: then you will lose the value $V(t)$ if it is positive to you. CVA is then defined as the value of your potential loss throughout the life of the deal, ie. from $t_0$ to $T$, weighted by the probability of default $\mathbb{P}$: $$CVA(t_0)=\int_{t_0}^TEE(t)\text{d}\mathbb{P}(t)$$
However a stock is different because it is a property title on a company, and therefore its value should already capture the risk of default; I have never heard of EE or CVA being computed for stocks, only in the case of share lending (i.e. deals between banks and HFs which allow HFs to short shares).Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.