Fibonacci Sampled Average Candles and a Multi-EMA Trend Filter

Summary

This long only method builds synthetic candles by averaging open, high, low, and close prices sampled at Fibonacci spaced bar offsets. It then calculates several EMAs on the averaged close and uses their mean as a trend filter. A long position opens when the synthetic candle pattern is bullish and its close is above the average EMA. The position closes when bearish candle conditions occur below that filter.

The document says initial tests looked better on larger timeframes and lists BTC USDT futures settings for a one month hourly test, but gives no returns, drawdowns, or comparison results. The technique is presented as a way to smooth short term price fluctuations; the text also notes that EMA signals lag, and long only exposure may suffer in bear markets. The test window is short, so the stated timeframe observation should not be treated as broad evidence. Proposed improvements include stop losses, volatility based position sizing, and testing short exposure, none of which are part of the described rules.

Key ideas

• Synthetic candles average prices sampled at Fibonacci spaced bar offsets.
• The trend filter averages multiple EMAs calculated on the synthetic close.
• Bullish candle conditions above the filter open long positions; bearish conditions below it close them.
• The strategy is long only and can be vulnerable in falling markets.
• The published hourly BTC USDT futures test covers one month and provides no performance statistics.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.