Fitting a t-Copula to Empirical Marginals and Simulating Joint Samples
Summary
The document outlines a workflow for modeling dependence among several variables with different marginal distributions. It maps observations through empirical distribution functions to pseudo-uniform values, fits a t-copula to those values, draws new joint samples from the fitted copula, and transforms each component back using the empirical marginal distributions.
The accompanying R example illustrates these steps and raises questions about whether the procedure is coherent and whether the inverse transformation is implemented correctly. The text does not provide an answer or validation results. In particular, it leaves unresolved the distinction between applying an empirical inverse distribution function and using a sample quantile routine, as well as how well the fitted dependence model captures tail behavior. The material presents a practical modeling question, not evidence that the resulting samples are suitable for a particular trading or risk application.
Key ideas
- Empirical distribution functions can map observed variables to pseudo-uniform values before copula fitting.
- A t-copula models dependence among transformed variables and can generate joint samples.
- Generated uniform values must be mapped back through appropriate marginal inverse distributions.
- The example raises implementation and validity questions but supplies no answers or validation.
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Full text
# how to apply a simple copula model
# how to apply a simple copula model
I'm playing around with copulas and wanted to generate some sample based on copula techniques in R. For this purpose I applied the following algorithm:
- Generate three sample vectors coming from different distributions (normal, t, uniform), i.e. $X=(X_1,\dots,X_{100})$,$Y=(Y_1,\dots,Y_{100})$,$Z=(Z_1,\dots,Z_{100})$
- Apply empirical distribution function to each of the three assets. I take the empirical distribution function, since in reality you may not know the actual marginal distribution. In math terms we estimate $F_X,F_Y,F_Z$ based on $X,Y,Z$ and apply it: $$U_1=F_X(X),U_2=F_Y(Y),U_3=F_Z(Z)$$
- Fit a t-copula to the resulting pseudo-unfiromly distributed samples, i.e. we fit a copula $c$ to $c(U_1,U_2,U_3)$
- generate $100$ sample matrices $A_i$, each of size $200$ per marginal sample, i.e. we generate $100$ matrices $A_i=[S_1^i,S_2^i,S_3^i]$ with $200$ rows and $3$ column vector $S_1^i,S^i_2,S^i_3$ containing generated samples coming from $c$.
- retransform back to obtain actual marginal distribution sample coming from a t-copula model, i.e. for each of the $A_i$ we look at $$B_i=[F_X^{-1}(S^i_1),F_Y^{-1}(S^i_2),F_Z^{-1}(S^i_3)] $$
here is a sample R code
```
a <- rnorm(1000,1,0.3)
b <- rt(1000,4)
c <- runif(1000)
data <- cbind(a,b,c)
#calculate emprical distribution
for (i in 1:ncol(data)){
emp <- apply(data,2,ecdf)
}
hist(emp[[1]](data[,1]))
hist(emp[[2]](data[,2]))
hist(emp[[3]](data[,3]))
data.unif <- cbind(emp[[1]](data[,1]),emp[[2]](data[,2]),emp[[3]](data[,3]))
#fit copula
fitCopulat <- fit.tcopula(Udata = data.unif,method = "Kendall")
l1 <- list()
for(i in 1:100){
l1[[i]] <- rcopula.t(200,df = fitCopulat$nu,Sigma = fitCopulat$P)
}
#transform back to get right marginal distributions
l2 <- l1
for(i in 1:100){
for(j in 1:ncol(data)){
l2[[i]][,j] <- quantile(data[,j],probs = l1[[i]][,j])
}
}
```
I have the following two questions:
- Does the algorithm make sense?
- Is step 5. correctly implemented? I'm unsure if I used the function quantile correctly.Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.