Forecasting Pivot Timing with Multi-Scale Hurst Diamond Notation
Summary
This indicator marks confirmed swing highs or lows across a set of cycle lengths, ranging from a half cycle through progressively longer multiples. A pivot is confirmed only after the configured number of bars on its right has elapsed, and the marker is plotted back at the pivot bar. For each cycle, the indicator tracks intervals between confirmed pivots, calculates their running average, and projects a prospective next pivot with a surrounding time range. Labels and alerts can be configured by cycle; the user can choose whether to track highs or lows and adjust visual settings.
The forecasts are based on historical average spacing, not a demonstrated predictive model. The document provides no performance analysis or evidence that pivots arrive on schedule, and actual swing timing can vary. Because confirmation requires later bars, the apparent historical marker is delayed relative to when the turning point occurred; projected timing should therefore be treated as a reference rather than a trading signal or guarantee.
Key ideas
- The indicator identifies swing pivots using configurable left and right bar lengths across multiple cycle scales.
- Confirmed pivots are displayed at their historical pivot bars even though confirmation arrives later.
- It estimates future pivot timing from the running average interval between past pivots and displays a range around the estimate.
- Users can select highs or lows, enable cycle-specific forecasts, and set alerts for a chosen scale.
- No evidence is provided that the average intervals reliably forecast future turning points.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.