Forecasting Swing Targets from Recent Leg Size and Variability
Summary
The indicator estimates the likely size of the current price leg from recent completed swings. It detects swing turns using a rolling high or low, records each leg’s percentage move and duration, and uses a weighted average, ordinary average, or median of recent leg sizes to project a target from the latest swing point. Standard deviation of past leg sizes sets the uncertainty band, with a floor tied to long-period ATR. A widening beam represents more variable swing history; a narrowing beam reflects greater consistency.
The chart also marks swing-based support and resistance zones, which extend and fade with age, then change appearance after a close breaks them. Fibonacci extensions offer reference levels if price travels past the target. The document suggests using targets as possible exit references, extensions to assess whether a move is stretched, and zones as a level map. These are descriptive statistical references, not validated directional forecasts: the projection follows the current swing direction, depends on the chosen lookback and sample, and includes no performance or backtest evidence.
Key ideas
- Recent completed swing legs provide the historical sample for estimating the current leg’s target size.
- Weighted, average, and median methods offer different ways to summarize past leg sizes.
- The forecast beam widens with variability in past legs, while a minimum band is linked to ATR.
- Swing-based support and resistance zones fade with age and are visually marked after a break.
- Targets and Fibonacci extensions are chart references, not evidence of a profitable trading rule.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.