Forecasting Swing Targets from Recent Price Structure

Summary

This indicator identifies swing highs and lows using a configurable lookback, then records the size and duration of completed price legs. It estimates the next move from up to twenty recent swings, using a weighted estimate, an equal-weight average, or a median intended to reduce the effect of outliers. A projection beam and target zone visualize the estimated path and dispersion; optional Fibonacci extensions mark further levels.

It also draws support and resistance zones at confirmed pivots. Zone width scales with a long-period ATR, while broken levels are faded and eventually removed; alerts mark confirmed swing changes. The document provides implementation details and adjustable inputs, but no performance evaluation or evidence that past swing behavior predicts future prices. The forecast is a historical-pattern estimate, and its uncertainty display reflects variation in sampled swings rather than a validated probability range. Pivot confirmation and parameter choices can also affect how quickly levels and forecasts respond.

Key ideas

• The indicator detects pivots from a configurable rolling high and low window.
• Completed swing legs supply the magnitude and duration history used for the next-move estimate.
• The estimate can use recency weighting, an equal-weight average, or a median.
• A widening beam and target zone visualize forecast dispersion, while optional Fibonacci levels extend the projected move.
• ATR-scaled support and resistance zones are created at pivots and marked as broken when price closes through them.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.