Heston Call Probabilities and Gil-Pelaez Fourier Inversion
Summary
The document clarifies the probability terms in the Heston call pricing formula. It decomposes the call payoff into two expectations, then uses a change of numéraire to express the price through probabilities under the risk neutral measure and a stock numéraire measure. These probabilities can be obtained from the cumulative distribution of log price.
Since Heston's model supplies a characteristic function rather than a closed form density, the answer applies the Gil-Pelaez inversion theorem to recover the cumulative distribution. The theorem contributes the one-half term missing from the questioner's integral: the pricing probability is the complement of the probability that log price falls below the strike threshold. The explanation focuses on the second probability and says the same approach applies to the first; it does not provide a full derivation of the inversion theorem or numerical implementation details.
Key ideas
- A call price can be written using threshold probabilities under two different pricing measures.
- The characteristic function of log price can be used to recover its cumulative distribution by Fourier inversion.
- The Gil-Pelaez formula supplies the one-half term in the probability expression.
- The probability of reaching or exceeding the strike is the complement of the probability of finishing below it.
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Full text
# A clarification on the Heston option pricing formula
# A clarification on the Heston option pricing formula
I have carefully reconstructed all the computations that lead to the Heston option pricing formula for a call. I end up with this formula for the "adjusted" probabilities
$$ P_j\left(x,v,T;\ln K\right) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty}\frac{d\phi}{2\,\pi}\,\frac{e^{-i\,\phi\,\ln\left(K\right)}\,f_j\left(x,v,T;\phi\right)}{i\,\phi}\,d\phi $$
while in the original paper and all textbooks the final formula is expressed as
$$ P_j\left(x,v,T;\ln K\right) = \frac{1}{2}+\int_{0}^{\infty}\frac{d\phi}{\pi}\,\text{Re}\left(\frac{e^{-i\,\phi\,\ln\left(K\right)}\,f_j\left(x,v,T;\phi\right)}{i\,\phi}\,\right)d\phi. $$
I understand that, if $f_j\left(x,v,T;\phi\right)$ is such that
$$ f_j\left(x,v,T;-\phi\right) = \bar{f_j}\left(x,v,T;\phi\right)\quad(1) $$
(where a bar indicates the complex conjugate) then we have immediately that
$$ \int_{-\infty}^{\infty}\frac{d\phi}{2\,\pi}\,\frac{e^{-i\,\phi\,\ln\left(K\right)}\,f_j\left(x,v,T;\phi\right)}{i\,\phi}\,d\phi = \int_0^\infty\frac{d\phi}{\pi}\,\text{Re}\left(\frac{e^{-i\,\phi\,\ln\left(K\right)}\,f_j\left(x,v,T;\phi\right)}{i\,\phi}\,\right)d\phi. $$
My problem is thus twofold. First I cannot see from the definition of $f_j\left(x,v,T;\phi\right)$ that the property (1) is satisfied (neither I have found any kind of discussion in other textbooks) and, second, even if (1) is proved I miss the $\frac{1}{2}$ that appears in the Heston formula.
Any help would be greatly appreciated.
## Answer by Quantuple (score 2, accepted)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/24886
I do not know what are the exact steps you followed, but here's my 2 cents:
\begin{align*} C(S_t,t) &= P(t,T) E^Q [ (S_T - K)^+ ] \\ & = P(t,T) E^Q [ S_T 1_{S_T \geq K} ] - K P(t,T) E^Q [ 1_{S_T \geq K} ] \end{align*}
Which can be re-written (using a change of numéraire)
\begin{align*} C(S_t,t) &= S_t E^{Q^S} [ 1_{S_T \geq K} ] - K P(t,T) E^Q [ 1_{S_T \geq K} ] \\ &= S_t P_1 - K P(t,T) P_2 \end{align*}
where $P_1 = Q^S( S_T \geq K)$ (resp. $P_2 = Q(S_T \geq K)$) are directly related to the cumulative distribution function of the stock price $S_T$ under the measure $Q^S$ (resp. $Q$) where the stock price (resp. the riskless money account) is chosen as numéraire.
Because $P_1$ and $P_2$ share very similar interpretations (up to a change of measure), I simply focus on $P_2$ in what follows.
If we knew the probability density function $q(s_t,v_t,t;S_T=s)$ in closed-form, we could trivially infer the desired cdf by integrating it and hence deduce $P_2$. This is not the case here.
However, we know the characteristic function $f_2$ of the log-stock price $s_T = \ln(S_T)$ under $Q$ (remember that Heston's model is an affine diffusion framework), which by definition writes $f_2(s_t,v_t,t;\phi) = E^Q[e^{i\phi s_T}]$. From this definition comes the equality you mention in your original post.
At this point, there exists a general result, known as the Gil-Pelaez inversion theorem, which tells you how to 'invert' $f_2(\phi)$ (which is basically a Fourier transform) to obtain the desired CDF. Here, the theorem writes
$$Q(s_T < \ln(K) ) = \frac{1}{2} - \frac{1}{\pi} \int_0^\infty \Re \left[ \frac{e^{-i \phi \ln(K)}f_2(\phi))}{i\phi} \right] d\phi$$
Making the missing 1/2 term appear. Noting that $P_2 = 1 - Q(s_T < \ln(K) )$ concludes the demonstration. Similar developments can be applied to obtain $P_1$. You can probably find demonstrations of the Gil-Pelaez inversion theorem in the literature.Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.