How Autocallable Hedging Can Drive Dividend Swap Selling

# Structured product sellers and div swaps


# Structured product sellers and div swaps












From a Barclays primer on dividend swaps:

> We note that for shorter periods of time, implied dividends can be more volatile than spot as dividends often trade away from fundamental value for technical reasons (as the structured products sellers become longer implied dividend risk as spot declines, and they hedge this risk by selling dividends, which can cause implied dividends to over shoot on the downside).

Why do structured product sellers become longer implied dividend risk as spot declines? I have clue how this mechanism works.

## Answer by Ivan (score 4, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/38460

The paper is generally correct, but it is not a general statement, as in a general truth of options hedging in a theoretical context, rather a statement regarding how the structured derivs market is typically set up: retail and institutional investors buy a large number of products that at their core entail the dealer buying (from the investor) long-dated (3y+) otm put options, or perhaps even more often, down-and-in put options. The idea is that the value of this potential downside loss for the investor can be paid back by the dealer in the form of better returns (eg larger coupons) than what a simple principal-protected product would achieve. A typical popular product is a so-called Autocallable Note (see elsewhere).

Schematically, these products make dealers longer (implied future) dividends (ie. shorter delta to the forward) as the market goes down and one way to hedge that risk is to sell long-dated dividends via div swaps (or div futures).

The effect is sometimes quite violent as was seen on Eurostoxx div futures in 2008-9. The divs moves will then largely overshoot that of the index itself. In such instances it is fair to say that the forward div curve does not reflect “the expectations of market participants”, rather it reflects the large-scale forced selling by a number of them.

As a side note and this is the same effect at play, you also see that the typical term structure of div futures is downward sloping which opens up interesting opportunities if one can weather the swings in the meantime.

## Answer by DMSTA (score 4)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/43054

To add to the above on a more practical note:

In general, SP desks make money on the individual product when the underlying declines. Dividends make the underlying decline, hence they are naturally long dividends.

Take an auto-callable product which is exercised if the spot is above a pre-determined strike each year and say the SP desk sells this structure over 5 years. Once a year, on a pre-determined date, the product will be exercised if the final price is above the strike. Maximum length of the product = 5 years, minimum = 1 year.

If the market drops, the probability the product fails to be exercised increases, and hence the expected term of the product increases. If they were long dividends before, now that the market has dropped and the expected lifetime of the product has increased, their long exposure to dividends will increase.

## Answer by Ezy (score 1)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/43068

Just to add a remark on top of Ivan’s excellent answer, note that the core reason IB package those KI puts in the autocallables and other SP for investors is not just in order to make the coupons more attractive to the investors but fundamentally to buy back the volatility skew that the vanilla desk is structurally seller of.