Hull Moving Average Trend Signals with ATR-Based Exits
Summary
This strategy uses the direction changes of a short-period Hull moving average (HMA) to time entries and a longer-period HMA to confirm the broader trend. A short HMA turn triggers a trade only when the long HMA points in the same direction, aiming to filter countertrend moves and short-term noise. The document also describes volatility-scaled stop-loss and take-profit levels based on ATR, placed relative to price highs or lows.
The published settings show a 50-period signal HMA, a 200-period filter HMA, and a 14-period ATR, with separate stop and target multipliers. A sample backtest configuration covers BTC/USDT futures, but the document reports no performance statistics, so it does not establish profitability. It warns that false turns and choppy markets can produce poor or frequent trades, and that ATR-based exits depend on a useful volatility estimate. Parameter tuning and added filters are suggested, but not evaluated.
Key ideas
- A short HMA direction change provides the entry signal.
- A long HMA direction filter requires alignment with the short-term turn.
- ATR values scale the described stop-loss and take-profit distances.
- False signals and choppy conditions are acknowledged risks, while no quantified backtest results are provided.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.