Know Sure Thing: A Weighted Multi-Period Rate of Change Indicator

Summary

The Know Sure Thing indicator combines smoothed rates of change over four lookback horizons into one oscillator. Each rate of change is averaged over its own smoothing window, then multiplied by a weight that increases with the horizon. This gives the longer lookbacks greater influence, with the stated aim of reflecting larger market cycle swings and identifying possible turning points.

The document provides a formula and parameter set, but no signal rules, chart examples, backtest, or evidence of predictive performance. It does not specify whether traders should use zero-line crossings, divergences, or another trigger, nor how to manage positions. The provided calculation is therefore an indicator construction example, not a complete trading strategy; its usefulness depends on instrument, timeframe, implementation details, and independent validation.

Key ideas

• KST combines four rates of change calculated over different lookback horizons.
• Each rate of change series is smoothed using a moving average.
• The longer horizons receive larger weights in the combined oscillator.
• The stated purpose is to help identify major market cycle turning points.
• The document gives no trading rules or performance evidence.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.