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Linking Mean and Covariance Uncertainty to Penalize Negative Skewness

Article Quant Q&A · Author: amber

Summary

The document proposes linking uncertain expected returns and covariance matrices in a portfolio objective that rewards expected return while penalizing variance. It contrasts uncertainty sets where higher means pair with higher covariance against sets where higher means pair with lower covariance, and claims that this dependence can make negative skewness more costly. It also states inequalities comparing linked uncertainty sets with independently chosen mean and covariance sets, and asks for proofs.

The response recommends first making the feasible sets explicit in a small multi-asset example. It notes that skewness requires a higher-order tensor and can affect both the feasible sets and the objective; once these are specified, monotonicity may be examined, including through Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions. The answer does not prove either inequality or define a complete optimization model. The proposed relationship between mean and covariance is therefore an intuition in need of precise assumptions and mathematical verification.

Key ideas

  • The objective combines expected return with a covariance-based risk penalty under parameter uncertainty.
  • Linking mean and covariance uncertainty is proposed as a way to represent skewness effects.
  • A skewness tensor can change both the feasible sets and the objective.
  • The response recommends explicit feasible sets and small examples but supplies no proof of the stated inequalities.

Tags

Full text
# penalizing negative skewness by linking $U(\mu)$ and $U(\Sigma)$


# penalizing negative skewness by linking $U(\mu)$ and $U(\Sigma)$












Consider $U_1(\mu,\Sigma)$ and $U_2(\mu,\Sigma)$, where $U_1(\mu, \cdot) = U_2(\mu, \cdot)$, $U_1(\cdot, \Sigma) = U_2(\cdot, \Sigma)$ such that

\begin{equation*} arg\inf\limits_{\mu \in U_1(\mu, \cdot), \Sigma \in U_1(\cdot, \Sigma)} \left(w^T \mu – \alpha w^T \Sigma w \right) \equiv arg\inf\limits_{\mu \in U_2(\mu, \cdot), \Sigma \in U_2(\cdot, \Sigma)} \left(w^T \mu – \alpha w^T \Sigma w\right) \end{equation*}

Solutions for inner problems are the same

$(\mu, \Sigma)$ from $U_1$ are positively related ($\Sigma \uparrow$ as $\mu \uparrow \Rightarrow$ positively skewed)

$(\mu, \Sigma)$ from $U_2$ are negatively related ($\Sigma \downarrow$ as $\mu \uparrow \Rightarrow$ negatively skewed)

Solutions for inner problem: low $\mu$, high $\Sigma$

\begin{equation} arg\inf\limits_{(\mu, \Sigma) \in U_1(\mu, \Sigma)} \left(w^T \mu – \alpha w^T \Sigma w \right) \geq arg\inf\limits_{(\mu, \Sigma) \in U_2(\mu, \Sigma)} \left(w^T \mu – \alpha w^T \Sigma w \right) \quad (1) \end{equation}

$\Rightarrow$ negative skewness is penalized by linking $U(\mu)$ and $U(\Sigma)$.

$\begin{align} \max\limits_w \left(w^T \mu – \alpha w^T \Sigma w\right) &\geq \max\limits_w\inf\limits_{(\mu, \Sigma) \in U(\mu, \Sigma)} \left(w^T \mu – \alpha w^T \Sigma w\right)\\ &\geq \max\limits_w\inf\limits_{\mu \in U(\mu), \Sigma \in U(\Sigma)} \left(w^T \mu – \alpha w^T \Sigma w\right)\quad (2) \end{align}$

Can anyone help me in proving the equation 1 and 2? here the uncertain set for mu(mean) could be ellipsoid and will change the problem in second order conic problem ......and the uncertain set for the sigma(variance matrix) could be a rectangular box which will change the problem in semi definite programming problem.also we can choose some others as i mention in the comments.

## Answer by Dimitris (score 3)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/2084

@amber -

As a general hint: try to solve a small-scale case first. Pick a two- or better three-asset $(\mu,\Sigma)$ and construct the objectives. Construct the "skewness tensor" (it's not a matrix, you can think of it like a "cube" or something - consult this book on how you can actually represent it as a matrix, or Fabozzi et al's textbook for an accessible discussion to the whole idea of introducing skewness tensors).

In your case, actually, it will be difficult to construct the feasible sets, since you don't seem to have a clear grasp of the optimization problem - there are many calls for clarifications. Try to spell them out explicitly.

Next, note that the skewness tensor alters both the feasible sets and the objective. It is easy to establish the monotonicity, once the tensor is explicitly introduced in both. To do so, you can even use the simple Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions.

Both inequalities are very easy to establish.

Good luck with your thesis.

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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.