Long-Only Crypto Trend Strategy Using MACD, Moving Averages, and a Stop

Summary

This long-only approach seeks sustained upward moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum using a set of trend filters. It calculates a 20-period EMA and 100- and 200-period simple moving averages, then checks whether those averages are rising and whether price and the faster average are above the intermediate average. The code also requires the slow average to be rising and recent MACD movement to be positive, while keeping measured ATR volatility below a threshold. A percentage stop closes the position, as does a downward EMA/SMA crossover.

The document reports a BTC/USDT futures backtest window but gives no returns or other measured evidence; its claim of favorable backtest performance cannot be assessed from the supplied material. It cautions that costs are omitted, live results may differ, and stop placement and asset-specific behavior matter. The strategy is unhedged and can miss opportunities or lose during reversals and sideways markets. Its stated MACD crossover condition is broader than the code, which checks whether the MACD line is rising rather than a crossover.

Key ideas

• Entry requires rising moving averages, price above the intermediate SMA, and rising MACD, subject to an ATR volatility filter.
• The strategy uses a percentage stop and exits on a downward crossover of the fast EMA and intermediate SMA.
• It is long-only and designed to reduce trading frequency by requiring several trend conditions.
• The published test settings do not include performance figures, and trading costs are not accounted for.
• The prose describes a MACD upward cross, while the code checks rising MACD values instead.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.