Long-Only Fibonacci Extension Breakouts with EMA and ATR Risk Controls

Summary

This swing-trading method seeks long breakouts in assets above a 200-period exponential moving average. It anchors Fibonacci extensions to detected swing pivots and uses a close above the 1.618 extension as the entry signal. The described risk plan places a stop one ATR below entry and a profit target three ATR above it. The document frames the method for higher timeframes, though the published backtest settings use ETH/USDT futures on a one-hour chart.

No backtest performance results are supplied. The document highlights delayed pivot confirmation, the possibility that price will not respect the chosen extension, fixed ATR multiples, and the absence of short trades. It also cautions that pivot-based historical calculations can complicate backtest interpretation. The source code defines its exit levels from the current close, which may cause them to move over time rather than remain fixed at entry; this differs from the prose description and should be checked before implementation. Suggested extensions include additional confirmation signals, adaptive risk controls, and position sizing.

Key ideas

• Long entries require price to be above the 200-period EMA and to close above a 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
• The strategy identifies extension anchors from recent pivot highs and lows.
• The described exit plan uses an ATR-based stop and a larger ATR-based profit target.
• Pivot confirmation is delayed, and the extension level may not be respected by the market.
• The source calculates exit levels from the current close, which may differ from fixed entry-based exits.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.