Long Pullbacks Above a Long-Term Moving Average

Summary

This strategy looks for long entries during an established uptrend. It uses a long-term simple moving average to define trend context and a short-term average to identify pullbacks: when the close is above the long average but below the short one, it enters long if flat and within the allowed time window. It exits when price recovers above the short average, subject to an optional lower-close condition, or when a percentage-based loss threshold is breached.

The document describes configurable moving-average lengths, a stop percentage, and a date filter, and provides a backtest setup for BTC/USDT futures using daily bars with hourly base data. It reports no performance results, so it does not establish profitability. The strategy may trade frequently in sideways markets, and reversals can produce losses; fees, parameter sensitivity, and gaps or sharp moves can also affect outcomes. Suggested refinements include trend-strength filters, volatility-based stops, and position sizing, which are proposals rather than tested findings.

Key ideas

• The long-term moving average defines the broader trend, while the short-term average marks pullback entries and recovery exits.
• A long entry requires price to be above the long average and below the short average while no position is open.
• The strategy uses a percentage-based stop and can optionally wait for a qualifying lower close before exiting above the short average.
• The document gives backtest settings but no performance evidence, so profitability remains unverified.
• Sideways trading and trend reversals can cause repeated entries or losses.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.