Market Cycle Detection and Historical Duration-Based Prediction Zones

Summary

This indicator segments price history into alternating bull and bear periods by detecting reversals. Users can define a reversal through a percentage move, elapsed time without a new high or low, or both, with separate percentage thresholds for falling and rising phases. Optional minimum-duration rules can filter shorter swings. The indicator records crests and troughs, period duration and percentage change, and can display background phases, labels, stagnation intervals, and aggregate statistics.

For a prospective cycle, it uses prior periods in the same direction to form a time-and-price zone, with mean and median markers. A percentile option is offered to reduce the influence of extreme observations, and the description says at least three complete periods are needed for percentile calculations. These projections summarize historical ranges; the document supplies no evidence that cycle timing or projected zones predict future prices reliably. Results depend on the reversal rules, timeframe, selected history, and limited number of observed cycles.

Key ideas

• Reversals can be defined by percentage movement, time without a new extreme, or a combination.
• Separate thresholds and minimum-duration filters let users customize bull and bear cycle segmentation.
• The indicator summarizes the duration and percentage change of completed periods.
• Prediction zones use historical periods in the same direction and can show mean, median, and percentile-based ranges.
• Cycle projections are historical summaries, and the document provides no evidence of predictive accuracy.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.