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Maximum Drawdown, Losing Streaks, and Recovery

Article Quant Q&A · Author: cc88

Summary

The document distinguishes maximum drawdown, measured from a running portfolio-value peak to a subsequent trough, from a longest run of negative returns. A drawdown can remain unrecovered at the end of the sample; recovery is tracked separately. The answer illustrates the distinction with an example in which the larger peak-to-trough loss occurs early, while a later decline lasts longer as a losing streak.

It defines absolute drawdown as the running maximum value minus current value, with relative drawdown obtained by dividing by the running maximum. Maximum drawdown is the largest value in that drawdown series. The answer also explains why a trough cannot precede its peak: a consistently rising series should have no drawdown. No universal convention is claimed; definitions differ in sign, absolute versus relative measurement, and historical window, with relative drawdown said to be common in equities.

Key ideas

  • Maximum drawdown measures loss from a prior running peak to a later trough.
  • A losing streak counts consecutive negative returns and is not the same measure as drawdown.
  • A drawdown need not recover within the observation period, and recovery is a separate measure.
  • Relative drawdown divides the peak-to-current loss by the running peak value.
  • Conventions vary in sign, absolute or relative scaling, and the historical window used.

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Full text
# Difference between Maximum Drawdown and Largest Individual Drawdown


# Difference between Maximum Drawdown and Largest Individual Drawdown












Bacon in Practical Portfolio Performance Measurement and Attribution distinguishes between the two, specifying that "Maximum drawdown represents the maximum loss an investor can suffer in the fund buying at the highest point and selling at the lowest" and Largest Individual Drawdown to be "the largest individual uninterrupted loss in a return series". This is clear, however, other sources seem to be unclear or outright disagree. For example, Investopedia defines maximum drawdown as a "maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio" and doesn't mention Largest Individual Drawdown. CFI seems to agree, though they seem to emphasize (based on the graph provided) that a new peak must be reached if a drawdown is to be considered a maximum drawdown. Some sources seem to use the largest individual drawdown as a maximum drawdown (here, PerformanceAnalytics R package).

Questions the I have are:

- What is the difference between Maximum Drawdown and Largest Individual Drawdown?

- Does the new peak need to be reached for a drawdown to be considered for maximum drawdown (even if the non-peaked drawdown is larger than the peaked drawdown) as Wikipedia would suggest?

- Can trough value be before the peak value (as per what Investopedia's formula seem to suggest)?

- What is the commonly used definition of maximum drawdown?

## Answer by Enrico Schumann (score 2, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/75834

From your (or rather Bacon's) description, it seems to me that the "Largest Individual Drawdown" would more properly be called a losing streak, or a run of negative returns. Since you seem to be using R, you could use `rle` to compute such streaks.

```
R <- c(rep(-0.02, 2), rep(0.03, 2), rep(-0.001, 5))
## [1] -0.020 -0.020  0.030  0.030 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
## ==> two negative, two positive, five negative returns
rle(R < 0)  ## runs of returns < 0 get a TRUE
## Run Length Encoding
##   lengths: int [1:3] 2 2 5
##   values : logi [1:3] TRUE FALSE TRUE
```

Since drawdowns are computed from prices, not returns, I compute an artificial price series:

```
P <- cumprod(c(0, R) + 1)
```

All implementations I have ever seen would consider the first two negative returns as the maximum drawdown, whereas the later drop (time 5 to 10) is the longest losing streak.

See the function `streaks` in package PMwR (which I maintain).

```
library("PMwR")
streaks(P, up = 0)
##   start end state   return
## 1     1   3  down -0.03960
## 2     3   5    up  0.06090
## 3     5  10  down -0.00499

drawdowns(P)
##   peak trough recover     max
## 1    1      3       5 0.03960
## 2    5     10      NA 0.00499
```

Question 2: No, it doesn't. (One usually speaks of "recovery" of a drawdown.)

Question 3: No: Imagine a series that goes up 1%, every day. Such a series has no drawdown. If the trough could be before the peak, it would have a drawdown.

Question 4: There is no universally accepted version, though I prefer this one (taken, with slight adjustments, from the PMwR manual):

> Let the symbol $v$ be a time series of portfolio values, with observations indexed at $t=0, 1, 2 \ldots T$. The drawdown $D$ of this series at time $t$ is defined as \begin{equation} D_t = v^{\max}_t - v_t \end{equation} in which $v^{\max}_t$ is the running maximum, i.e. $v^{\max}_t=\max\{v_{t'}\,|\,{t'} \in [0,t]\}$. Note that $D$ is a vector of length $T+1$. [...] To compute relative drawdown, divide $D_t$ by $v^{\max}_t$. The maximum drawdown is the maximum of the vector.

In my experience, descriptions differ mainly in i) the sign (most people prefer positive; after all, you call it maximum drawdown): ii) whether absolute or relative (in equties, relative is much more common); and iii) whether the computation should be limited to a fixed historic window.

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.