Measuring Monthly Bull and Bear Runs Against Historical Streaks

Summary

The indicator classifies each completed month as an advance or decline, then tracks consecutive runs in both directions. It reports the current run, the longest observed up and down runs, and the average number of consecutive up months before a down month and down months before an up month. This gives a compact historical context for the current monthly direction without requiring the trader to inspect a monthly chart directly.

The author recommends applying it to a daily chart, where more history may be available, and cautions that faster charts can provide too little history for meaningful output. The described averages and record streaks are historical summaries, not forecasts: the document offers no evidence that a run is likely to reverse after reaching a typical length. It also notes that importing a separate indicator file is needed for full functionality.

Key ideas

• The indicator counts consecutive monthly advances and declines.
• It reports current streaks, longest historical runs, and average run lengths before a reversal month.
• The author recommends a daily chart to retain sufficient monthly history.
• Historical run lengths describe past behavior and do not establish a reversal signal.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.