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Measuring Public Settlement Finality in Kalshi Event Contracts

Article arXiv papers · Author: Maksym Nechepurenko
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Summary

This study treats event-contract settlement as a sequence of public market states rather than a single universal timestamp. It distinguishes market membership, lifecycle messages, terminal endpoints, and missing observations, using registered enrollment and follow-up windows on Kalshi. Public REST and WebSocket data are used to identify exact endpoints and, where possible, pair determination times with endpoint times.

The reported endpoint coverage is extensive, particularly through REST, while intermediate path coverage is more limited and varies across market groups. The paper also reports descriptive differences in determination-to-endpoint durations between two cohorts. It cautions that these venue-level public records do not establish when members receive cash, that transport gaps limit claims about complete paths or revisions, and that the duration comparison is not causal. Historical rule versions cannot be linked to current settlement timers, further limiting interpretation.

Key ideas

  • The study models settlement as a public state path with distinct lifecycle messages and endpoint states.
  • REST and WebSocket records provide different evidence for identifying exact public endpoints.
  • The paper reports determination-to-endpoint durations for subsets with exact paired timestamps.
  • Public endpoint timing does not establish member cash receipt or complete intermediate market histories.
  • The cohort duration contrast is descriptive, and current timers cannot be tied to historical rule versions.

Tags

Event-drivenMarket microstructureStatisticsCrypto
Full text
# 2610.00165


# Outcome Determination and Settlement Finality on Kalshi: Public State Paths, Prospective Measurement, and Empirical Identification









Event-contract settlement is a state path rather than a universal timestamp. Using a registered seven-day enrollment and seven-day administrative follow-up on Kalshi, this paper distinguishes market-object membership, lifecycle messages, endpoint states, and observation gaps. The MVE layer contains 7,611,594 tickers created inside the registered half-open interval; the reconstructed ordinary stock contains 152,694 markets at risk at the enrollment boundary, 3,477,227 already terminal records, and 11,410 boundary-uncertain records. The follow-up identifies exact public endpoints for 7,357,576 MVE market objects: 7,237,993 through REST settlement time alone, 119,212 agreeing across WebSocket and REST, and 371 WebSocket-only; 254,018 lack an admissible exact endpoint. In the ordinary boundary cohort, 71,657 markets have an exact WebSocket endpoint and 81,037 do not. These are venue-level public-finality outcomes, not member-cash observations. Exact determination-to-endpoint pairs are available for 126,806 MVE and 70,979 ordinary tickers, with respective mean durations of 9.676 and 322.50 seconds and observed maxima of 15 and 7,133 seconds. The contrast is descriptive, not causal. Transport gaps preserve two exact endpoint clocks but prevent the same rows from proving complete intermediate paths or absence of revisions; current settlement timers cannot be bound to historical rule versions. Public endpoint completion is therefore extensive, especially on REST, while path completeness remains narrower and family-specific. The exact-key historical crosswalk records earlier interim observations without changing the final cohort or endpoint facts.

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: abstract CC0

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.