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Merton Jump-Diffusion Call Pricing as a Poisson-Weighted Black-Scholes Sum

Article Quant Q&A · Author: Imean H

Summary

The document explains how to price a European call under Merton’s jump-diffusion model. A Black-Scholes calculation conditioned on a fixed number of jumps is only one component of the price; the full value averages those conditional prices across all possible jump counts using their Poisson probabilities.

Given normally distributed log jump sizes, conditioning on the jump count leaves the terminal log price normally distributed. Each conditional case can therefore be valued with Black-Scholes using an adjusted initial spot and a volatility that incorporates diffusion variance and jump variance. Weighting these values by the Poisson distribution, with discounting, produces the option price. The answer derives the adjustment by matching the conditional log-price mean and variance.

The document provides a model formula and derivation, rather than empirical tests or market calibration. The result depends on the stated risk-neutral setup, jump-size distribution, and parameter conventions; the fixed-count shortcut alone omits the required averaging.

Key ideas

  • A Black-Scholes price conditional on a fixed jump count is not the complete Merton model price.
  • The option value is the Poisson-probability-weighted sum of conditional Black-Scholes values.
  • Conditional volatility incorporates both diffusion variance and the variance of the specified number of jumps.
  • The conditional Black-Scholes spot must be adjusted to match the risk-neutral terminal log-price mean.

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Full text
# Formula for Merton jump diffusion call price


# Formula for Merton jump diffusion call price












What is the formula for a call price in Merton's jump diffusion model?

I am asking because I was taught: $$BS \left[ S = S_0e^{ n(m + \frac{v}{2}) - C \cdot T} , vol = \sqrt{\sigma^2 + nv/T} \ \right]$$ i.e., we use the BS formula where spot and volatility are given as above. Here, $$ C = \lambda (e^{ (m + v/2) } -1 ).$$

And yet, the prices I get from this do not align with some that I found online.

Is the formula right? What formula do people usually use?

## Answer by LocalVolatility (score 3, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/33565

The solution that you provided in your question is conditional on the number of jumps being equal to some fixed $n$. To get the option price, you need to take the probability weighted sum over all values of $n \in \mathbb{N}$.

Starting from the standard risk-neutral pricing formula, you use the tower law to condition on the total number of jumps until maturity $N_T$, i.e.

\begin{eqnarray} V_0 & = & e^{-r T} \mathbb{E}_{\mathbb{Q}} \left[ \left( S_T - K \right)^+ \right]\\ & = & e^{-r T} \mathbb{E}_{\mathbb{Q}} \left[ \mathbb{E}_{\mathbb{Q}} \left[ \left. \left( S_T - K \right)^+ \right| N_T = n \right] \right]\\ & = & \sum_{n = 0}^\infty e^{-r T} \mathbb{E}_{\mathbb{Q}} \left[ \left. \left( S_T - K \right)^+ \right| N_T = n \right] \mathbb{Q} \left\{ N_T = n \right\}. \end{eqnarray}

Let the jump size in the logarithmic asset price be normal with mean $\mu$ and variane $\nu^2$. Conditional on $N_T = n$, the logarithmic terminal asset price $\ln \left( S_T \right)$ is normally distributed with

\begin{equation} \mathcal{N} \left( \ln \left( S_0 \right) + \left( r - \frac{1}{2} \sigma^2 - \lambda \left( \exp \left\{ \mu + \frac{1}{2} \nu^2 \right\} - 1 \right) \right) T + n \mu, \sigma^2 T + n \nu^2 \right). \end{equation}

Now imagine a Black-Scholes model with an initial spot of $\hat{S}_0(n)$ and a volatility of $\xi(n) = \sqrt{\sigma^2 + n \nu^2 / T}$. The logarithmic terminal asset price $\ln \left( \hat{S}_T(n) \right)$ in this model would be normally distributed with

\begin{equation} \mathcal{N} \left( \ln \left( \hat{S}_0(n) \right) + \left( r - \frac{1}{2} \xi^2(n) \right) T, \xi^2(n) T \right). \end{equation}

While the variances of the two distributions match by construction, we can solve for $\hat{S}_0(n)$ such that their means do as well. We get

\begin{equation} \ln \left( \hat{S}_0(n) \right) = \ln \left( S_0 \right) - \lambda \left( \exp \left\{ \mu + \frac{1}{2} \nu^2 \right\} - 1 \right) T + n \left( \mu + \frac{1}{2} \nu^2 \right). \end{equation}

I.e. denoting by $V_{\text{BS}} \left( S_0, \sigma \right)$ the Black-Scholes solution for the same plain vanilla call with initial spot $S_0$ and volatility $\sigma$, we get

\begin{equation} \ldots = \sum_{n = 0}^\infty e^{-\lambda T} \frac{(\lambda T)^n}{n!} V_{\text{BS}} \left( \hat{S}_0(n), \xi(n) \right). \end{equation}

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.