Moments of the Difference Between Correlated Geometric Brownian Motions
Summary
The discussion asks how to calculate the distributional statistics of the difference or sum of asset prices modeled as geometric Brownian motions, including the effects of drift, volatility, and correlation. It notes that the difference of two GBMs is not itself a GBM, so a direct closed-form distribution is unavailable. The expectation can nevertheless be calculated from the separate process expressions, and the cited response says the distributional moments have been worked out.
Moments can support an equivalent lognormal or shifted-lognormal approximation for a portfolio value such as a spread. The discussion mentions use of such approximations in basket-option methods, including a binomial tree for American basket options. The text does not provide the moment formulas or detail the approximation error, so it offers a direction for analytical work rather than a complete recipe. Its applicability depends on the model assumptions and on how accurately the chosen approximation represents the spread distribution.
Key ideas
- The difference of two GBM prices is not itself a GBM.
- The expected value of the difference can be computed from the individual process expectations.
- Distributional moments can be used to approximate a spread or portfolio with a lognormal or shifted-lognormal distribution.
- Moment-based approximations have been applied in basket-option methods.
- The document does not provide formulas for the moments or quantify approximation accuracy.
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Full text
# Statistics of difference between two GBMs
# Statistics of difference between two GBMs
if I have two asset prices modeled separately as geometric brownian motions. How do i go about calculating the expected statistics of their difference? Like given the sigmas and mus of both processes, and their correlations, what would the standard deviation of that difference/sum be?
Is there an analytic solution for the case of two GBMs? Or are there even solutions for n>2?
I've done simulations with a large number of assets. But could intermarket spreads or similar be done without simulating?
I really thought this would be easy to find with google, but I was unable to.
## Answer by Brian B (score 2)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/7724
There is of course no closed-form formula for this. However, the community has long since worked out what all the distributional moments are. A common use is to get the equivalent lognormal (or sometimes shifted lognormal) distribution to a portfolio (such as your difference).
Here's a recent moments paper in which they go so far as to run a binomial tree for American basket options.
## Answer by Andrew (score 1)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/7711
$$ \frac{dS_{1t}}{S_{1t}}=\mu_1 dt + \sigma_1 dW_{1t} \to S_{1t} = S_{1,t=0}e^{\int^t_0 \mu_1 - .5\sigma^2_1 ds + \int^t_0 \sigma_1dW_{1s}}\\ \frac{dS_{2t}}{S_{2t}}=\mu_2 dt + \sigma_1 \rho dW_{1t} + \sigma_2 (1-\rho)dW_{2t} \to S_{2t} = S_{2,t=0}e^{\int^t_0 \mu_2 - .5 (1-\rho)^2\sigma_2^2 + \rho^2 \sigma_1^2 ds + \rho \int^t_0 \sigma_1dW_{1s} + (1-\rho)\int^t_0 \sigma_2dW_{2s}} \\ S_{2t} - S_{1t} = S_{1,t=0}e^{\int^t_0 \mu_1 - .5\sigma^2_1 ds + \int^t_0 \sigma_1dW_{1s}} - S_{2,t=0}e^{\int^t_0 \mu_2 - .5 (1-\rho)^2\sigma_2^2 + \rho^2 \sigma_1^2 ds + \rho \int^t_0 \sigma_1dW_{1s} + (1-\rho)\int^t_0 \sigma_2dW_{2s}} $$
Which as you can see, is not GBM but you can compute Expected value from here.Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.