Month-End 200-Day Moving Average Trend Strategy

Summary

This strategy checks whether a market’s closing price is above or below its 200-day simple moving average on a designated month-end signal day. It enters a fully invested long position at the next session’s open when price is above the average, and exits to cash when price is below it. The intended approach is to follow medium- to long-term trends while limiting turnover through infrequent checks.

The document describes the method and lists possible refinements, including additional signal dates, Bollinger Bands, alternative moving-average periods, and dynamic position management. It provides a backtest configuration but no clear, verifiable performance report for that configuration. The strategy is presented as a stock approach, while the published backtest settings specify a Bitcoin futures market. The source also checks for day 30 rather than identifying the final trading day of every month, so its implementation may not match the written description. A slow average can react late, and the document itself cautions that the approach may miss moves or misread uncertain markets.

Key ideas

• The strategy compares the closing price with a 200-day simple moving average on a monthly signal date.
• A close above the average triggers a long entry at the next session’s open, while a close below it triggers an exit.
• Monthly checks are intended to reduce trading frequency and associated costs.
• The document suggests testing other signal dates, filters, and position controls, but supplies no clear results for its published backtest setup.
• The source’s day-30 condition may not consistently identify each month’s final trading day.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.