Moving-Average Cycle Phases and Bollinger-Based Trading Signals

Summary

This document describes two technical indicators built around moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and trend phases inspired by an adoption-cycle concept. The first classifies price conditions into colored states such as bearish, rebound, opportunity, trend reversal, bullish, consolidation, and neutral. Its rules compare closing prices and the relative positions of short-, medium-, and long-period averages, including 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-period averages. The second indicator assigns colored histogram values to prospective buy, buy, pre-sell, and sell conditions, using average relationships and interactions with the upper or lower Bollinger Band.

The author presents the phases as a way to interpret market cycles and describes stronger buy indications in bullish configurations, with no buy signal below the long-term average. However, the document supplies code and qualitative rationale rather than backtest results or measured probabilities. It does not specify markets, bar intervals, execution assumptions, or risk controls, and its many overlapping conditions may require careful implementation and independent validation before use.

Key ideas

• The trend indicator classifies market phases using price position relative to several moving averages.
• The color states distinguish bearish conditions, rebounds, opportunity and reversal phases, bullish trends, consolidation, and neutral conditions.
• The companion signal indicator combines moving-average structure with Bollinger Band interactions to flag buying and selling conditions.
• The author describes buy signals as more favorable in bullish configurations and bars buying below the 200-period average.
• The document provides no backtest evidence, execution assumptions, or risk-management rules.

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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.